A Sell-Off In Equity Markets Seems To Be Outweighing Supply Concerns Again To Start The Week
A sell-off in equity markets seems to be outweighing supply concerns again to start the week as energy contracts have turned from 2 cent gains overnight to 2 cent losses this morning as US equities moved deeper into the red following their worst week since the start of the pandemic.
The pen is mightier than the sword? The selling seems to be largely driven by expectations that the FED and other central banks are ending the money printing party and will soon raise rates to combat inflation, which for the moment is outweighing concerns that armed conflict may soon disrupt the flow of global energy supplies.
The march to war in the Ukraine seems remains the biggest story with numerous threats to both lives and markets. Read here for a list of possible market impacts expected should the invasion take place.
The IEA last week made a case that Russia’s withholding of natural gas had more to do with the price spike last year than the conversion to lower carbon fuel alternatives, and urged the world to learn a lesson from this, highlighting the growing threat from limited lithium supplies as EV’s gain market share.
Meanwhile, the existing war between Arab nations and Houthi rebels continues to add another level of concern as another missile attack on the UAE this weekend reminded the world that some of the largest oil producers are still trying to kill each other.
Money managers continue to add to their bets on higher petroleum prices with 4 of the big 5 contracts all seeing net length held by the large speculative trade category increase again last week. Reuters’ John Kemp argues that chronically low inventories are encouraging these bets on higher prices, which suggests they may continue for some time. (see the Commitment of Traders Report table & charts below)
Baker Hughes reported a net decrease of 1 active oil rig working in the US last week, the first weekly decline since October. The EIA on Friday reported that its forecasts suggests oil and natural gas output in the US should continue to grow and reach record highs next year.
Today’s interesting read, from the WSJ: The flaws in CAFÉ standards that will continue contributing to strong fuel demand.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Week 48 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The API Reported Gasoline Inventories Dropped By 898,000 Barrels Last Week
Gasoline and oil prices are attempting to rally for a 2nd straight day, a day ahead of the delayed OPEC meeting, while diesel prices are slipping back into the red following Tuesday’s strong showing.
The API reported gasoline inventories dropped by 898,000 barrels last week, crude inventories declined by 817,000 barrels while distillates saw an increase of 2.8 million barrels. Those inventory stats help explain the early increases for RBOB and WTI while ULSD is trading lower. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
A severe storm on the Black Sea is disrupting roughly 2% of the world’s daily oil output and is getting some credit for the bounce in futures, although early reports suggest that this will be a short-lived event.
Chevron reported that its Richmond CA refinery was back online after a power outage Monday night. San Francisco spot diesel basis values rallied more than a dime Tuesday after a big drop on Monday following the news of that refinery being knocked offline.
Just a few days after Scotland’s only refinery announced it would close in 2025, Exxon touted its newest refinery expansion project in the UK Tuesday, with a video detailing how it was ramping up diesel production to reduce imports and possibly allow for SAF production down the road at its Fawley facility.
Ethanol prices continue to slump this week, reaching a 2-year low despite the bounce in gasoline prices as corn values dropped to a 3-year low, and the White House appears to be delaying efforts to shift to E15 in an election year.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Values For Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Drop This Week
The petroleum complex continues to search for a price floor with relatively quiet price action this week suggesting some traders are going to wait and see what OPEC and Friends can decide on at their meeting Thursday.
Values for space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to drop this week, with trades below 10 cents/gallon after reaching a high north of 18-cents earlier in the month. Softer gasoline prices in New York seems to be driving the slide as the 2 regional refiners who had been down for extended maintenance both return to service. Diesel linespace values continue to hold north of 17-cents/gallon as East Coast stocks are holding at the low end of their seasonal range while Gulf Coast inventories are holding at average levels.
Reversal coming? Yesterday we saw basis values for San Francisco spot diesel plummet to the lowest levels of the year, but then overnight the Chevron refinery in Richmond was forced to shut several units due to a power outage which could cause those differentials to quickly find a bid if the supplier is forced to become a buyer to replace that output.
Money managers continued to reduce the net length held in crude oil contracts, with both Brent and WTI seeing long liquidation and new short positions added last week. Perhaps most notable from the weekly COT report data is that funds are continuing their counter-seasonal bets on higher gasoline prices. The net length held by large speculators for RBOB is now at its highest level since Labor Day, at a time of year when prices tend to drop due to seasonal demand weakness.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.