Another Green Day For Energy Futures
It’s another green day for energy futures as prices continue to ride the bullish wave of OPEC cuts and the Phase-1 US/China trade deal. The move higher has been fairly small however (it took 2 full weeks to make up for just the Black Friday losses) which could mean traders are skeptical of the staying power of this rally, or simply that they’re focusing elsewhere as the holidays approach.
ULSD futures are starting to look particularly bullish with a trifecta of technical, fundamental and regulatory factors all favoring higher prices near term. If there’s any sort of major winter cold snap along the East Coast in the next few months, conditions are ripe for a 30+ cent price increase in short order. The first test on the charts looks to be the highs around $2.10 that were set in the wake of Iran’s attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in September.
Gasoline prices are struggling to keep pace with the rest of the complex as we enter the seasonal demand slowdown, with US inventories at elevated levels, compared to distillate stocks that are at the bottom end of their seasonal range.
Values to ship gasoline on the main line of Colonial pipeline’s system rose to their highest levels in more than 3 years Monday as Gulf Coast basis values dropped to double digit discounts to RBOB futures amidst several refineries ramping up gasoline production. The loss of the PES refinery earlier this year along with the Tier 3 gasoline & IMO diesel spec changes for 2020 could make values along Colonial more consistently valuable vs recent years when they’ve spent the majority of their time in negative territory. As the chart below shows however, values for space along the line seem to be following a seasonal pattern, and won’t be a game changer unless they last into the spring.
The giant spending package working its way through congress is reported to include the $1/gallon biodiesel blenders credit retroactively from Jan 1 2018, through the end of 2022. If passed, that may well save numerous US biodiesel producers that were on the verge of insolvency without the credit, and give the industry a rare period of extended certainty after many years of having to wait for the credit to be reinstated retroactively.
The Dallas FED’s energy indicators report for December suggests that the slowdown in oil drilling has cost more than 8,000 job losses in TX this year, more than double the official federal estimate, as bankruptcies in the oil patch rose throughout the year. The report also notes that OPEC may have handed producers an early Christmas present with their output cuts that have propped up prices.
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The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.
Week 15 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Prices To Lease Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Rally This Week
Energy markets are sliding lower again to start Wednesday’s trading as demand concerns and weaker stock markets around the world seem to be outweighing any supply concerns for the time being.
Rumors continue to swirl about an “imminent” response by Israel to Iran’s attacks, but so far, no news seems to be taken as good news in the hopes that further escalation can be avoided, even as tensions near the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer.
Prices to lease space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to rally this week, trading north of 11 cents/gallon as Gulf Coast producers still struggle to find outlets for their production, despite a healthy export market. Gulf Coast CBOB is trading at discounts of around 34 cents to futures, while Gulf Coast RBOB is trading around a 16-cent discount, which gives shippers room to pay up for the linespace and still deliver into the East Coast markets at a profit.
Back to reality, or just the start of more volatility? California CARBOB basis values have dropped back to “only” 40 cent premiums to RBOB futures this week, as multiple flaring events at California refineries don’t appear to have impacted supply. The state has been an island for fuel supplies for many years as its boutique grades prevent imports from neighboring states, and now add the conversion of the P66 Rodeo refinery to renewable diesel production and the pending changes to try and cap refinery profits, and it’s easier to understand why these markets are increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes on gasoline.
RIN prices continue to fall this week, touching 44 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 values Tuesday, their lowest level in 6 weeks and just about a nickel above a 4-year low. While the sharp drop in RIN and LCFS values has caused several biodiesel and Renewable Diesel producers to either shut down or limit production, the growth in RIN generation continues thanks to projects like the Rodeo refinery conversion, making the supply in RINs still outpace the demand set by the Renewable Fuel Standard by a wide margin.
The API reported draws in refined products, 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 427,000 barrels for distillates, while crude oil stocks had an estimated build of more than 4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.