Big Story Out Of Washington Snaps Refined Product Winning Streak
Oil prices are holding steady, while refined products are facing modest selling pressure to start the week. The OPEC & friends meeting that officially kicks off Thursday should be the major price-driving story this week, after a big story out of Washington snapped the refined product winning streak on Friday.
RIN values traded up nearly a dime early Friday morning but fell sharply after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of small refiners seeking exemptions to the RFS, overturning a lower court ruling. D6 values reached $1.74 prior to the ruling, and ended the day trading around $1.48. Since the high/low range for the day was so large, most reporting agencies showed only small changes on the day, but should catch up with the larger downward move today, unless of course the RIN rollercoaster cranks back up.
Refined products saw a bit of a flash crash in the wake of the news, with RBOB prices dropping 8 cents in 5 minutes following the report, after reaching a 7 year high earlier in the day, only to quickly recover those losses as cooler heads trading algorithms prevailed. It’s important to note that while the ruling opens the door for refiners to petition the EPA for a waiver, the agency still gets to determine which plants qualify, which helps explain why RIN values – while lower on the day – remain at historically high levels.
The EIA’s refining capacity report showed total throughput capability in the US dropped nearly 5% last year, the largest drop since the great recession as plants struggled to survive the demand collapse caused by COVID lockdowns. The Supreme Court ruling on small refinery waivers may help prevent this list from continuing to grow in 2021 since the RVO nearing $10/barrel this year could certainly be the difference between profitability and insolvency for several facilities.
The U.S. launched air strikes on Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and Syria over the weekend. So far, there has not been further escalation from the attacks labeled as “self-defense” but they certainly don’t seem to be moving the parties closer to one another in the ongoing nuclear treaty negotiations.
A storm system off of the South Carolina coast is given 70% odds of development this week, but should reach land in the next day or two, preventing it from strengthening too much. It also happens to be in an area without any refineries, so should not be a supply disrupter except for traffic in the Charleston and Savannah port areas. The storm system moving across the Atlantic is now given 40% odds of development this week, although it still looks like a long shot to get into the Gulf of Mexico where it would become a supply threat.
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Energy Markets Rally Again Thursday After A Choppy Wednesday Session
Energy markets are trying to rally again Thursday after a choppy Wednesday session. RBOB gasoline futures are leading the push higher, on pace for a 3rd consecutive day of gains after finding a temporary floor Tuesday and have added 12 cents from those lows.
Equity markets are pointing sharply lower after a weak Q1 GDP estimate which seems to have contributed to a pullback in product prices over the past few minutes, but don’t be surprised if the “bad news is good news” low interest rate junkies start jumping in later on.
The DOE’s weekly report showed sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, but inventory levels in most markets continue to follow their typical seasonal trends. Refinery runs held fairly steady last week with crude inputs down slightly but total gross throughputs up slightly as most facilities are now back online from a busy spring maintenance season and geared up for peak demand this summer.
Propane and propylene exports spiked to a record high north of 2.3 million barrels/day last week, which demonstrates both the US’s growing influence on global product markets, and the steady shift towards “other” products besides traditional gasoline and diesel in the level of importance for refiners.
The EIA acknowledged this morning that its weak diesel consumption estimates reflected the switch to Renewable Diesel on the West Coast, although they did not provide any timeline for when that data will be included in the weekly survey. The agency acknowledged that more than 4% of the total US consumption is now a combination of RD and Biodiesel, and that number is expected to continue to grow this year. This morning’s note also suggested that weak manufacturing activity was to blame for the sluggish diesel demand across the US, while other reports suggest the freight recession continued through Q1 of this year, which is also contributing to the big shift from tight diesel markets to oversupplied in several regions.
Valero kicked off the Q1 earnings releases for refiners with solid net income of $1.2 billion that’s a far cry from the spectacular earnings north of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The refining sector made $1.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion last year. That is a pattern that should be expected from other refiners as well as the industry returns to a more normal market after 2 unbelievable years. You wouldn’t guess it by looking at stock prices for refiners though, as they continue to trade near record highs despite the more modest earnings.
Another pattern we’re likely to see continue with other refiners is that Renewable earnings were down, despite a big increase in production as lower subsidies like RINs and LCFS credit values sting producers that rely on those to compete with traditional products. Valero’s SAF conversion project at its Diamond Green joint venture is progressing ahead of schedule and will give the company optionality to flip between RD and SAF depending on how the economics of those two products shakes out this year. Valero also shows part of why refiners continue to disappear in California, with operating expenses for its West Coast segment nearly 2X that of the other regions it operates in.
Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk