Energy Futures Are Seeing A Strong Rally To Start Friday’s Trading With Big Rallies In Risk Assets Around The Globe
Energy futures are seeing a strong rally to start Friday’s trading with big rallies in risk assets around the globe and some technical buying after the heavy selling earlier in the week both seeming to contribute to the big bounce. Chinese demand guesses continue to be a talking point as well, although it’s becoming even less clear whether or not the world’s largest oil importer is actually relaxing or not.
Hope springs eternal: Just a week after the FED chair said it was “very premature” to talk about when central bank would pivot from its tightening monetary policy, US stocks had their best daily rally in 2.5 years betting the FED would pivot because inflation was only .4% for the month of October, and 7.7% for the trailing 12 months. That euphoria continued overnight in international markets and seems to have encouraged some energy traders to jump on the “risk on” bandwagon this morning, even though the correlation.
While the optimists are clearly in control at the moment, don’t be surprised if more demand fears creep back in soon after reports that Chinese refiners have taken an unusual step of asking Saudi Arabia to reduce their oil volumes in December as consumption has slowed. Those reports seem to rain on the parade of the COVID relaxation rumor crowd, who were acting an awful lot like the pivot prophets are now until reality set in.
Big drops in diesel outright prices, time and crack spreads had pushed several contracts to key chart support levels that could have sparked another wave of selling, but so far technical support layers have held up and the bulls have passed their first big test. We’ll have to see if that proves true for the record-setting basis values in NYH that dropped almost 20 cents Thursday after reaching a record premium of $1.25/gallon earlier in the week.
Gulf Coast diesel is now trading more than 27 cents below December ULSD futures, and is still trading nearly $1.30 below prompt values in New York, which has pushed values for shipping diesel along colonial to a record high of 15 cents/gallon. That rapid increase suggests PADD 3 refiners may have temporarily run out of better alternatives than braving the backwardation along the East Coast to get rid of their excess distillates.
Terminals across Florida are reopening as power has been restored following Hurricane Nicole’s landfall. There are no reports yet of major damage to any port or tank infrastructure.
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View AllRefined Products Are Moving Lower For A 2nd Day After Coming Under Heavy Selling Pressure In Wednesday’s Session
Refined products are moving lower for a 2nd day after coming under heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s session. Rapidly increasing refinery runs and sluggish diesel demand both seemed to weigh heavily on product prices, while crude oil is still benefitting from the disruption of exports from Iraq. Prices remain range-bound, so expect more choppy back and forth action in the weeks ahead.
US oil inventories saw a large decline last week, despite another 13-million barrels of oil being found in the weekly adjustment figure, as imports dropped to a 2-year low, and refinery runs cranked up in most regions as many facilities return from spring maintenance.
The refining utilization percentage jumped to its highest level of the year but remains overstated since the new 250,000 barrels/day of output from Exxon’s Beaumont facility still isn’t being counted in the official capacity figures. If you’re shocked that the government report could have such a glaring omission, then you haven’t been paying attention to the Crude Adjustment figure this year, and the artificially inflated petroleum demand estimates that have come with it.
Speaking of which, we’re now just a couple of months away from WTI Midland crude oil being included in the Dated Brent index, and given the uncertainty in the US over what should be classified as oil vs condensate, expect some confusion once those barrels start being included in the international benchmark as well.
Diesel demand continues to hover near the lowest levels we’ve seen for the first quarter in the past 20+ years, dropping sharply again last week after 2 straight weeks of increases had some markets hoping that the worst was behind us. Now that we’re moving out of the heating season, we’ll soon get more clarity on how on road and industrial demand is holding up on its own in the weekly figures that have been heavily influenced by the winter that wasn’t across large parts of the country.
Speaking of which, the EIA offered another mea culpa of sorts Wednesday by comparing its October Winter Fuels outlook to the current reality, which shows a huge reduction in heating demand vs expectations just 6-months ago.
It’s not just domestic consumption of diesel that’s under pressure, exports have fallen below their 5-year average as buyers in South America are buying more Russian barrels, and European nations are getting more from new facilities in the Middle East.
Take a look at the spike in PADD 5 gasoline imports last week to get a feel for how the region may soon be forced to adjust to rapidly increasing refining capacity in Asia, while domestic facilities come under pressure.
Crude Oil Prices Are Trying To Lead Another Rally In Energy Futures This Morning
Crude oil prices are trying to lead another rally in energy futures this morning, while ULSD prices are resisting the pull higher. Stocks are pointed higher in the early going as no news is seen as good news in the banking crisis.
WTI prices have rallied by $10/barrel in the past 7 trading days, even with a $5 pullback last Thursday and Friday. The recovery puts WTI back in the top half of its March trading range but there’s still another $7 to go before the highs of the month are threatened.
Yesterday’s API report seems to be aiding the continued strength in crude, with a 6 million barrel inventory decline estimated by the industry group last week. That report also showed a decline of 5.9 million barrels of gasoline which is consistent with the spring pattern of drawdowns as we move through the RVP transition, while distillates saw a build of 550k barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Diesel prices seems to be reacting both to the small build in inventories – which is yet another data point of the weak demand so far this year for distillates – and on the back of crumbling natural gas prices that settled at their lowest levels in 2.5 years yesterday and fell below $2/million BTU this morning.
While diesel futures are soft, rack markets across the Southwestern US remain unusually tight, with spreads vs spot markets approaching $1/gallon in several cases as local refiners go through maintenance and pipeline capacity for resupply remains limited. The tightest supply in the region however remains the Phoenix CBG boutique gasoline grade which is going for $1.20/gallon over spots as several of the few refineries that can make that product are having to perform maintenance at the same time.
French refinery strikes continue for a 4th week and are estimated to be keeping close to 1 million barrels/day of fuel production offline, which is roughly 90% of French capacity and almost 1% of total global capacity. That disruption is having numerous ripple effects on crude oil markets in the Atlantic basin, while the impact on refined product supplies and prices remains much more contained than it was when this happened just 5 months ago.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.