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Energy Futures In Recovery Rally Mode

Thursday, Nov 29 2018
Market Talk

Energy futures are in recovery rally mode this morning after reaching fresh lows for 2018 overnight. It’s easy to blame yesterday’s DOE report on the sell-off that saw WTI drop below the $50 mark for the first time in almost 14 months, but there’s not (yet) a clear reason for the bounce this morning.

One key non-oil story to watch: US Stocks had a huge rally Wednesday after the FED Chair suggested that interest rate increases may end sooner than previously indicated. While Energy and Equity prices have gone their own way most of the past month, a bit of optimism may be exactly what is needed to end the selling in petroleum products.

US crude oil inventories increased for a 10th consecutive week, and will surpass year-ago levels for the first time in 2018 if that streak reaches 11. US oil production held steady at its all-time high of 11.7 million barrels/day for a 3rd week, a casual 2 million barrels/day higher than this time last year. For perspective, that 2 million barrels/day alone would make the US one of the world’s top 15 oil producing countries.

Diesel prices took a relatively unfamiliar role of leading the complex lower after outperforming for most of the past year. Look no further than a sharp increase in US Diesel output combined with a collapse in the weekly demand estimate from the DOE to understand why.

Refinery runs surged nearly 700,000 barrels/day last week as plants made the turn from fall maintenance and have resumed their record-setting pace of production.

CLICK HERE for a PDF of today's charts

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