Energy Futures Pulling Back This Morning With Gasoline Leading To Start The Day
Energy futures are pulling back so far this morning, with gasoline prices leading the way lower with ~1% losses to start the day. The American crude oil benchmark is following close behind, sporting a 60 cent per barrel haircut (down .6%) while its distillate counterpart is off only .83 cents, or -.3%, to start the week.
Gasoline prices are shying away from the new 2023 high they set last week. May RBOB futures exchanged hands at $2.8428 per gallon on Thursday before pulling back to settle at $2.8133. May HO futures, on the other hand, are struggling to break out of their sideways trading pattern, bounding it at $2.60 on the lower end and $2.80 to the upside.
WTI futures have seemed to set a new temporary floor at the $79-$80 level, which it has failed to fall below ever since OPEC+ shocked the industry with an impromptu production cut last weekend. But the impact of the Cartel Surprise isn’t limited to the energy industry: US monetary policy will likely be impacted since energy prices make up 7.5% of the Consumer Price Index, which the Fed has been attempting to wrestle over the past year.
What might stoke the idea this latest move from OPEC+ is largely avaricious is looking at which countries won’t suffer a supply decrease. Saudi Arabia will supply several refiners in North Asia with their full contractual volumes in May, despite the 500mbpd production cut beginning next month. The official explanation is this will help stabilize the global oil market, however, after the cuts were announced, Saudi Aramco raised its official selling prices for its crude going to Asia in May.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk
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Week 48 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The API Reported Gasoline Inventories Dropped By 898,000 Barrels Last Week
Gasoline and oil prices are attempting to rally for a 2nd straight day, a day ahead of the delayed OPEC meeting, while diesel prices are slipping back into the red following Tuesday’s strong showing.
The API reported gasoline inventories dropped by 898,000 barrels last week, crude inventories declined by 817,000 barrels while distillates saw an increase of 2.8 million barrels. Those inventory stats help explain the early increases for RBOB and WTI while ULSD is trading lower. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
A severe storm on the Black Sea is disrupting roughly 2% of the world’s daily oil output and is getting some credit for the bounce in futures, although early reports suggest that this will be a short-lived event.
Chevron reported that its Richmond CA refinery was back online after a power outage Monday night. San Francisco spot diesel basis values rallied more than a dime Tuesday after a big drop on Monday following the news of that refinery being knocked offline.
Just a few days after Scotland’s only refinery announced it would close in 2025, Exxon touted its newest refinery expansion project in the UK Tuesday, with a video detailing how it was ramping up diesel production to reduce imports and possibly allow for SAF production down the road at its Fawley facility.
Ethanol prices continue to slump this week, reaching a 2-year low despite the bounce in gasoline prices as corn values dropped to a 3-year low, and the White House appears to be delaying efforts to shift to E15 in an election year.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Values For Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Drop This Week
The petroleum complex continues to search for a price floor with relatively quiet price action this week suggesting some traders are going to wait and see what OPEC and Friends can decide on at their meeting Thursday.
Values for space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to drop this week, with trades below 10 cents/gallon after reaching a high north of 18-cents earlier in the month. Softer gasoline prices in New York seems to be driving the slide as the 2 regional refiners who had been down for extended maintenance both return to service. Diesel linespace values continue to hold north of 17-cents/gallon as East Coast stocks are holding at the low end of their seasonal range while Gulf Coast inventories are holding at average levels.
Reversal coming? Yesterday we saw basis values for San Francisco spot diesel plummet to the lowest levels of the year, but then overnight the Chevron refinery in Richmond was forced to shut several units due to a power outage which could cause those differentials to quickly find a bid if the supplier is forced to become a buyer to replace that output.
Money managers continued to reduce the net length held in crude oil contracts, with both Brent and WTI seeing long liquidation and new short positions added last week. Perhaps most notable from the weekly COT report data is that funds are continuing their counter-seasonal bets on higher gasoline prices. The net length held by large speculators for RBOB is now at its highest level since Labor Day, at a time of year when prices tend to drop due to seasonal demand weakness.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.