Energy Futures Struggle To Find Price Floor
Energy futures are struggling to find a price floor as concerns over where to store supply in the short term outweighs global equity markets, cheering signs of gradual reopening.
June WTI is trading below $13, down more than 24 percent on the day, but that seems somewhat pedestrian compared to what we saw a week ago when the June contract traded as low as $6.50 in the wake of May’s epic meltdown. In the latest sign of the demand for tankage, Energy Transfer is now reportedly looking to idle two Texas pipelines to use the lines for temporary storage space.
Reports that Pemex was declaring force majeure on fuel import contracts seems to have driven much of the heavy selling in both time and basis spreads for distillates Friday. Those reports were later refuted later in the day, and since then we’re seeing ULSD try to lead the rest of the complex higher. As we saw in last week’s DOE report where a heavy drop in exports drove a large inventory build in distillates, this story could have major implications for U.S. refiners on both the Gulf and West coasts.
Baker Hughes reported that 60 more oil rigs were taken offline in the U.S. last week, 37 of which were in the Permian basin. At this pace, the total U.S. rig count, which has dropped by 305 rigs in just six weeks, is only one to two weeks away from breaking the low set in 2016.
Money managers increased their net long holdings in both Brent and WTI last week, although it’s worth noting that Brent did not see new longs joining in, just shorts liquidating what were likely to be very profitable positions. WTI did see new length added by both the money manager and other reportable category after “can I store crude in my swimming pool?” became a trending topic.
Growing long positions in ULSD and Gasoil Contracts among the “swap dealer” trader category shows the rapidly increasing interest by distillate consumers to lock in at these historically low prices.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Week 48 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The API Reported Gasoline Inventories Dropped By 898,000 Barrels Last Week
Gasoline and oil prices are attempting to rally for a 2nd straight day, a day ahead of the delayed OPEC meeting, while diesel prices are slipping back into the red following Tuesday’s strong showing.
The API reported gasoline inventories dropped by 898,000 barrels last week, crude inventories declined by 817,000 barrels while distillates saw an increase of 2.8 million barrels. Those inventory stats help explain the early increases for RBOB and WTI while ULSD is trading lower. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
A severe storm on the Black Sea is disrupting roughly 2% of the world’s daily oil output and is getting some credit for the bounce in futures, although early reports suggest that this will be a short-lived event.
Chevron reported that its Richmond CA refinery was back online after a power outage Monday night. San Francisco spot diesel basis values rallied more than a dime Tuesday after a big drop on Monday following the news of that refinery being knocked offline.
Just a few days after Scotland’s only refinery announced it would close in 2025, Exxon touted its newest refinery expansion project in the UK Tuesday, with a video detailing how it was ramping up diesel production to reduce imports and possibly allow for SAF production down the road at its Fawley facility.
Ethanol prices continue to slump this week, reaching a 2-year low despite the bounce in gasoline prices as corn values dropped to a 3-year low, and the White House appears to be delaying efforts to shift to E15 in an election year.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Values For Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Drop This Week
The petroleum complex continues to search for a price floor with relatively quiet price action this week suggesting some traders are going to wait and see what OPEC and Friends can decide on at their meeting Thursday.
Values for space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to drop this week, with trades below 10 cents/gallon after reaching a high north of 18-cents earlier in the month. Softer gasoline prices in New York seems to be driving the slide as the 2 regional refiners who had been down for extended maintenance both return to service. Diesel linespace values continue to hold north of 17-cents/gallon as East Coast stocks are holding at the low end of their seasonal range while Gulf Coast inventories are holding at average levels.
Reversal coming? Yesterday we saw basis values for San Francisco spot diesel plummet to the lowest levels of the year, but then overnight the Chevron refinery in Richmond was forced to shut several units due to a power outage which could cause those differentials to quickly find a bid if the supplier is forced to become a buyer to replace that output.
Money managers continued to reduce the net length held in crude oil contracts, with both Brent and WTI seeing long liquidation and new short positions added last week. Perhaps most notable from the weekly COT report data is that funds are continuing their counter-seasonal bets on higher gasoline prices. The net length held by large speculators for RBOB is now at its highest level since Labor Day, at a time of year when prices tend to drop due to seasonal demand weakness.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.