Energy Futures Tread Water
Energy futures are treading water to start Thursday’s trading with diesel and oil prices on the cusp of multi-month highs. So far buyers seem reluctant to keep pushing bids higher with warning signs for demand flashing around the country as shutdown orders continue to expand from coast to coast.
ULSD futures settled north of $1.26 for the first time in July, and are now threatening the $1.30 level that’s kept a lid on all rallies since March. If $1.30 breaks, next stop will be 1.38 which is where the diesel chart gapped during the price meltdown last spring when the first round of stay-at-home orders hammered prices.
It’s no coincidence this relative strength in diesel prices coincides with an improving supply/demand balance as yesterday’s DOE report showed total U.S. inventories returned to their five year seasonal range for the first time since April. The weekly demand estimate for diesel was actually slightly above the five year average for this time of year, and just 100,000 barrels/day below year-ago levels. Steeply backwardated diesel markets into December suggests that cash traders aren’t believing this strength can last through the holidays.
Basis values for distillates rallied in most regional markets Wednesday as the temporary tightness pushed up bids. Group 3 diffs were pushed to a multi-year high as inventories in the region reached a new eight year low. That rally was overshadowed by an even larger move by the notoriously volatile Chicago spot market, with rumors that the largest refiner in the area may soon be idling some units. The only cash markets not moving higher on the day were in Northern California and the PNW which had been trading at lofty premiums and started their seasonal return to reality.
While distillates are enjoy a resurgence, gasoline is staring at an ugly fundamental reality, as stocks look like they’ve started their annual build while demand faces the combination of the typical seasonal slowdown on top of a growing list of shutdown orders throughout the country. The DOE’s weekly gasoline demand estimate fell to a 22 week low last week, and evidence at the terminal level suggests we are likely to see more declines ahead. This diverging fundamental path for the two major refined products suggests refiners will be forced to make another shift in their production to favor distillates over gasoline, similar to what we saw in the spring.
Total refinery runs increased last week, led by a large move higher in the Gulf Coast. Ordinarily we’d expect refinery run rates to continue moving steadily higher through the end of the year, but with two shutdowns coming in November, and so much uncertainty surrounding demand this winter, it seems like we may be seeing U.S. run rates close to peaking until spring.
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The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.
Week 15 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Prices To Lease Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Rally This Week
Energy markets are sliding lower again to start Wednesday’s trading as demand concerns and weaker stock markets around the world seem to be outweighing any supply concerns for the time being.
Rumors continue to swirl about an “imminent” response by Israel to Iran’s attacks, but so far, no news seems to be taken as good news in the hopes that further escalation can be avoided, even as tensions near the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer.
Prices to lease space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to rally this week, trading north of 11 cents/gallon as Gulf Coast producers still struggle to find outlets for their production, despite a healthy export market. Gulf Coast CBOB is trading at discounts of around 34 cents to futures, while Gulf Coast RBOB is trading around a 16-cent discount, which gives shippers room to pay up for the linespace and still deliver into the East Coast markets at a profit.
Back to reality, or just the start of more volatility? California CARBOB basis values have dropped back to “only” 40 cent premiums to RBOB futures this week, as multiple flaring events at California refineries don’t appear to have impacted supply. The state has been an island for fuel supplies for many years as its boutique grades prevent imports from neighboring states, and now add the conversion of the P66 Rodeo refinery to renewable diesel production and the pending changes to try and cap refinery profits, and it’s easier to understand why these markets are increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes on gasoline.
RIN prices continue to fall this week, touching 44 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 values Tuesday, their lowest level in 6 weeks and just about a nickel above a 4-year low. While the sharp drop in RIN and LCFS values has caused several biodiesel and Renewable Diesel producers to either shut down or limit production, the growth in RIN generation continues thanks to projects like the Rodeo refinery conversion, making the supply in RINs still outpace the demand set by the Renewable Fuel Standard by a wide margin.
The API reported draws in refined products, 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 427,000 barrels for distillates, while crude oil stocks had an estimated build of more than 4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.