Energy Rally Paused By Iraqi-Kurdish Export Deal
Oil prices are seeing some modest selling after 5 days of gains following reports that Iraq had reached a temporary agreement with Kurdish leaders that will allow roughly ½ million barrels/day of exports to resume.
Refined products are seeing small gains after a back-and-forth session Tuesday. RBOB futures did fill in their chart gap during yesterday’s early drop that was nearly erased in the afternoon, which leaves one less lingering concern for anyone looking for a run to $3. ULSD prices meanwhile continue to look weak technically, with daily and weekly charts showing the contracts range-bound between $2.50-$2.80, while the monthly chart shows that the bear market that has pushed prices down $2/gallon in the past 6 months is still intact, with a chance for a slide to $2 possible if a rally doesn’t start in the next month or two.
The API reported inventory draws across the board last week with gasoline down just under 4 million barrels, distillates down 3.7 million and crude oil inventories down 4.3 million. The EIA’s weekly report is due out at its normal time.
The EIA has been highlighting its annual outlook in its daily energy articles this week. If you have been convinced that petroleum supplies will soon be a thing of the past, the government’s analysts disagree, estimating that domestic production of oil and natural gas will continue to grow through 2050, with international buyers taking on more of the demand for those products. Total US energy demand is also expected to grow over the next 30 years, although more domestic market share will be taken up by various forms of renewables.
So far, reports of supply disruptions from the parade of deadly tornadoes that have been sweeping the country have been minimal. Some minor issues with power outages have been reported but nothing that’s made much of an impact on prices or allocations yet. A report on the deadly tornado that tracked for more than 40 miles Friday suggests that Marathon’s refinery in Robinson IL came way too close for comfort to a direct hit.
Ethanol prices have rallied to their strongest levels of the year this week as stronger gasoline and corn prices both seem to be encouraging buyers. Last week’s train derailment that included ethanol cars is the latest data point to argue why it’s better to deliver 198 proof alcohol in ounces instead of gallons, but that’s not stopping a campaign by both the Ag Lobby, and fuel retailers to allow E15 sales in the summer. RIN values meanwhile have been strangely quiet the past couple of weeks, consolidating near the lowest levels of the year. If we see D6 values drop below $1.50/gallon, there’s room for a big drop in the charts, but so far buyers have been stepping in any time we get close to that value.
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Refined Products Bounce Back And Forth Across The Break-Even Line To Start Friday’s Trading
Gasoline Futures Rally Despite Inventory Builds, Increased Throughput
Energy Prices Fluctuate: Chinese Imports Surge, Saudi Arabia Cuts Output and Buys Golf
Week 23 - US DOE Inventory Recap
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View AllRefined Products Bounce Back And Forth Across The Break-Even Line To Start Friday’s Trading
The choppy action continues for energy markets with refined products bouncing back and forth across the break-even line to start Friday’s trading after some big swings Thursday.
RBOB futures led the rollercoaster ride Thursday, trading up 4 cents in the early morning hours, only to see those gains turn into 10 cent losses mid-morning, and then erasing most of those losses in the early afternoon following an ENT report of unplanned maintenance at the largest refinery on the East Coast.
The selling portion of the ride was blamed on a combination of an increase in jobless claims, and the disruptive impacts of the Canadian wildfires on the major population centers along the East Coast. While air traffic has been disrupted, so far there are not any reports of delays in ship traffic around the New York Harbor, and the strong basis and time spreads we’ve seen in NY have been easing this week, so it appears that this event is more concerning to the demand side of the equation than supply.
From a technical perspective, it’s not surprising to see this type of back-and-forth action as most petroleum contracts look to be stuck in neutral territory on the charts, which encourages trading programs to sell as prices get towards the top end of a range, and buy when it gets to the low end.
The Atlantic Hurricane season is off to a quiet start with no tropical development expected over the next week, but NOAA did issue an El Nino advisory Thursday that suggests the warm-water pattern in the Pacific could reach “supersized” levels and create all sorts of disruptive events. Perhaps most notable in the report is that forecasters don’t believe this year’s El Nino will have the same dampening impact on Atlantic hurricanes due to record warm temperatures in the water. Here’s a brief recap in case you missed the most memorable El Nino from 25 years ago.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Gasoline Futures Rally Despite Inventory Builds, Increased Throughput
Gasoline futures led another strong rally in the energy complex Wednesday and continued marching higher overnight before pulling back to near break-even levels around 7:45am central.
The RBOB contract has now wiped out the post-Memorial Day selloff, and erased the losses from the contract roll to July, setting up another test of the May highs at $2.73. If that resistance breaks, there’s a good chance we see another run at the $2.90 level, but if it holds we are probably still stuck in a sideways pattern as we move through the summer months. West Coast gasoline prices meanwhile have reached a 3-month high as surging basis values compound the move in futures.
The rally came despite healthy inventory builds for refined products and strong refinery runs across all 5 PADDs reported last week, with traders (or their algorithms) appearing to focus instead on healthy demand estimates in the DOE’s weekly status report. Gasoline also saw healthy exports last week, while diesel shipments overseas continued their decline which has helped keep downward pressure on diesel prices, which is essentially the polar opposite of what we were experiencing a year ago.
Lies, damned Lies and statistics: PADD 3 refinery utilization hit 98.8% of the official capacity figure last week, which would mark a 5 year high, except the numbers are wrong. The DOE still isn’t including recent capacity additions of almost 300mb/day in those stats, so the actual figure is about 3% lower. Don’t worry though, the lack of accurate data probably isn’t intentional. The DOE recently announced it was suspending data collection for some of its monthly reports as the agency is still struggling to overcome the IT Systems failure they experienced a year ago. Add this to the realization that the official crude production and petroleum demand figures have been incorrect due to a lack of clarity surrounding condensate production that comes along with oil output.
Speaking of which, the official US Oil output figure surged to the highest levels since the COVID lockdowns began more than 3 years ago last week. No word from the EIA if this means actual production increased, or if they’ve just changed the way they’re reporting the molecules coming out of the ground.
Irving Oil released a statement highlighting a strategic review of the company, that could include selling the business that’s been held by the Irving family for nearly 100 years. The Irving Refinery in New Brunswick is Canada’s largest at 300mb/day and is the largest importer of fuels into the northeastern US. Critics are arguing that the review is an attempt to politicize Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation that could weigh on the refinery’s profitability when it goes into full effect in July or could simply incentivize the facility to send more product to the US.
RIN values saw their first bounce in a couple of weeks, with both D6 and D4 values climbing back above the $1.40 mark after their recent slide from the mid $1.50s. We’re still 6 days away from the EPA’s deadline to issue the final RFS ruling for the next couple of years.
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Energy Prices Fluctuate: Chinese Imports Surge, Saudi Arabia Cuts Output and Buys Golf
Energy prices continue their back-and-forth trading, starting Wednesday’s session with modest gains, after a round of selling Tuesday wiped out the Saudi output cut bounce.
A surge in China’s imports of crude oil and natural gas seem to be the catalyst for the early move higher, even though weak export activity from the world’s largest fuel buyer suggests the global economy is still struggling.
New tactic? Saudi Arabia’s plan to voluntarily cut oil production by another 1 million barrels/day failed to sustain a rally in oil prices to start the week, so they bought the PGA tour.
The EIA’s monthly Short Term Energy Outlook raised its price forecast for oil, citing the Saudi cuts, and OPEC’s commitment to extend current production restrictions through 2024. The increase in prices comes despite reducing the forecast for US fuel consumption, as GDP growth projections continue to decline from previous estimates.
The report included a special article on diesel consumption, and its changing relationship with economic activity that does a good job of explaining why diesel prices are $2/gallon cheaper today than they were a year ago.
The API reported healthy builds in refined product inventories last week, with distillates up 4.5 million barrels while gasoline stocks were up 2.4 million barrels in the wake of Memorial Day. Crude inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels on the week. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
We’re still waiting on the EPA’s final ruling on the Renewable Fuel Standard for the next few years, which is due a week from today, but another Reuters article suggests that eRINs will not be included in this round of making up the rules.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.