Gasoline And Oil Futures Are Approaching 6 Month Lows This Week
Gasoline and Oil futures are approaching 6 month lows this week, following a harsh reminder Wednesday that slowing demand may be the only way to deal with the global energy supply shortage.
According to the DOE’s weekly report, gasoline consumption in the US has been weaker than the COVID summer of 2020 in 3 out of the past 4 weeks. While the weekly demand estimates are notoriously volatile, and in many cases unreliable in real time, there is no mistaking the market’s reaction to that data point as futures have dropped 25 cents in the past 24 hours.
Wednesday’s wipeout for RBOB futures, trumped Tuesday’s turnaround and has moved the technical outlook back into clearly bearish territory with a good chance we could see another 30 cent price drop in the next few weeks. It’s not just futures that are falling either, as NY Harbor gasoline prices have started their inevitable slide down an impossibly steep backwardation curve, with cash values down more than 40 cents as basis values start their return to reality. The selloff in both futures and cash markets assures that the streak of consecutive days of lower retail prices across the US will continue past 50.
If you’re still wondering why California retail prices are more than $1/gallon higher than many other states, take a look at the state fuel tax charts below (courtesy of the API), and then remember California ends up adding another 40-something cents per gallon in LCFS and Cap & Trade program costs on top of these official taxes.
Diesel inventories remain 24% below their average seasonal levels. PADDs 1 & 2 continue to have the lowest inventory levels relative to prior years, and the Midwest looks particularly vulnerable in the coming months as harvest demand ramps up, and Gulf Coast refiners have their hands full sending Barrels out to sea, rather than north as they’ve done for decades during this time. Speaking of which, Diesel exports have averaged north of 1.5 million barrels/day over the past month, meaning nearly 2 billion gallons of distillates have been sent overseas during this time. Remember that the next time someone asks why gasoline is so much cheaper than diesel in the next few months.
OPEC & Friends announced the smallest output increase they’ve ever made yesterday, .1mb/d for September with some reports suggesting this move was a political slap in the face to the US President, while the official press release suggests it was because of “severely limited availability of excess capacity”. It seems there’s a good chance they’re both right.
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Gasoline Futures Are Leading The Way Lower This Morning
It was a volatile night for markets around the world as Israel reportedly launched a direct strike against Iran. Many global markets, from equities to currencies to commodities saw big swings as traders initially braced for the worst, then reversed course rapidly once Iran indicated that it was not planning to retaliate. Refined products spiked following the initial reports, with ULSD futures up 11 cents and RBOB up 7 at their highest, only to reverse to losses this morning. Equities saw similar moves in reverse overnight as a flight to safety trade soon gave way to a sigh of relief recovery.
Gasoline futures are leading the way lower this morning, adding to the argument that we may have seen the spring peak in prices a week ago, unless some actual disruption pops up in the coming weeks. The longer term up-trend is still intact and sets a near-term target to the downside roughly 9 cents below current values. ULSD meanwhile is just a nickel away from setting new lows for the year, which would open up a technical trap door for prices to slide another 30 cents as we move towards summer.
A Reuters report this morning suggests that the EPA is ready to announce another temporary waiver of smog-prevention rules that will allow E15 sales this summer as political winds continue to prove stronger than any legitimate environmental agenda. RIN prices had stabilized around 45 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 credits this week and are already trading a penny lower following this report.
Delek’s Big Spring refinery reported maintenance on an FCC unit that would require 3 days of work. That facility, along with several others across TX, have had numerous issues ever since the deep freeze events in 2021 and 2024 did widespread damage. Meanwhile, overnight storms across the Midwest caused at least one terminal to be knocked offline in the St. Louis area, but so far no refinery upsets have been reported.
Meanwhile, in Russia: Refiners are apparently installing anti-drone nets to protect their facilities since apparently their sling shots stopped working.
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The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.