Gasoline Futures Are Leading The Energy Complex Higher This Morning
Gasoline futures are leading the energy complex higher this morning, setting yet another 7 year high, even after the rally in oil contracts stalled out Monday. Weather disruptions on the East and West Coasts seem to be a major factor contributing to the strength in RBOB as time spreads continue to surge with only a few days left before the October contract expires.
The Bomb Cyclone that hit the West Coast over the weekend disrupted operations at 3 different refineries in Northern California, sending basis values for San Francisco spots sharply higher on the day and outright prices to all-time highs in some cases.
So far there have not been any reports of upsets at the remaining East Coast refineries, but heavy flooding has been reported in the area, so some disruption to the supply network is still possible. Even if the refineries continue operating, this Nor’easter will definitely disrupt vessel traffic in and around the New York harbor at a time when supplies are unusually tight. At least one terminal in the area was shut due to power outages, and from the forecasts, it’s probably not going to be the last one to have a temporary disruption as the storm passes. Lines space values for gasoline shipped on Colonial remain in positive territory, which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past two years, another sign of the tightness in prompt supplies.
Countries around the world are announcing their climate plans this week, ahead of the global summit in Scotland this weekend. One of the biggest questions heading into the summit is whether or not China (the country with the most pollution) will attend. Overnight reports suggest that the country’s president will not join the summit, which is a major blow to the credibility of any pact reached.
The other big headline today is that Tesla has surpassed $1 Trillion in market cap, and its founder is now worth more than Exxon. Meanwhile, even ambitious projections for electric car production puts them at less than 5% of the global vehicle count 10 years from now. Exxon meanwhile continues to pursue its own carbon reduction agenda through its carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing survey showed that growth in the state remains above average even as costs are rising (aka inflation), and raw material shortages are limiting output. A highlighted note from chemical manufacturers shows that some are unable to keep up with demand, as we’ve seen with a shortage of additives across several markets in the past month.
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Gasoline Futures Are Leading The Way Lower This Morning
It was a volatile night for markets around the world as Israel reportedly launched a direct strike against Iran. Many global markets, from equities to currencies to commodities saw big swings as traders initially braced for the worst, then reversed course rapidly once Iran indicated that it was not planning to retaliate. Refined products spiked following the initial reports, with ULSD futures up 11 cents and RBOB up 7 at their highest, only to reverse to losses this morning. Equities saw similar moves in reverse overnight as a flight to safety trade soon gave way to a sigh of relief recovery.
Gasoline futures are leading the way lower this morning, adding to the argument that we may have seen the spring peak in prices a week ago, unless some actual disruption pops up in the coming weeks. The longer term up-trend is still intact and sets a near-term target to the downside roughly 9 cents below current values. ULSD meanwhile is just a nickel away from setting new lows for the year, which would open up a technical trap door for prices to slide another 30 cents as we move towards summer.
A Reuters report this morning suggests that the EPA is ready to announce another temporary waiver of smog-prevention rules that will allow E15 sales this summer as political winds continue to prove stronger than any legitimate environmental agenda. RIN prices had stabilized around 45 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 credits this week and are already trading a penny lower following this report.
Delek’s Big Spring refinery reported maintenance on an FCC unit that would require 3 days of work. That facility, along with several others across TX, have had numerous issues ever since the deep freeze events in 2021 and 2024 did widespread damage. Meanwhile, overnight storms across the Midwest caused at least one terminal to be knocked offline in the St. Louis area, but so far no refinery upsets have been reported.
Meanwhile, in Russia: Refiners are apparently installing anti-drone nets to protect their facilities since apparently their sling shots stopped working.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.