Gasoline Prices Are Leading The Modest Move Lower This Morning
After a strong Tuesday rally, energy and equity markets are slipping back into the red in the early going Wednesday as traders begin to wind down their activity ahead of the Christmas break.
RBOB and ULSD futures are hovering right around the weekly trend lines that have been in place since they peaked out in October some 40 cents above current values. If they can break through that resistance, there’s clear sailing on the charts for at least another 10 cent rally, and a decent chance we could see 20 cents added in the next few weeks, even as seasonal factors would tend to lean the other direction. If those trend lines continue to act as repellant to these rally attempts however, it seems inevitable that we’ll see prices make another run at the November lows.
Gasoline prices are leading the modest move lower this morning, with another large inventory build seeming to weigh on RBOB futures. The API reported that gasoline stocks grew by 3.7 million barrels last week, while crude and diesel inventories saw declines. Large builds are what we expect to see in gasoline this time of year, and we typically continue to see them until winter inventories peak some time in February ahead of the spring drawdown. Last weeks’ DOE report broke the mold and showed a large decline in gasoline stocks amidst a record surge in demand that seemed a little too good to be true, which could mean today’s report has a large correction and puts more downward pressure on prices.
Speaking of downward pressure: Ethanol prices along the East Coast have finally started to pull back from the $4 level, dropping 65 cents in the past week, and closing the gap with prices in other parts of the country that started their return to reality about a month ago. It’s not a shortage of ethanol that’s causing the price spikes, but a shortage of transportation to get the ethanol from the middle of the country where it’s made, to the coasts where it’s consumed, and as gasoline demand has started the annual winter decline, those bottlenecks appear to be easing, and the forward curve chart suggests there’s another dollar/gallon left to come out of these prices before the correction is done.
The next front in the cold war? While Russia continues its sabre rattling campaign over the Ukraine, the soviets are also seeing recognition of their new carbon program by the EU. No word yet if the EU refuses whether or not the Russians will simply invade the EU’s carbon scheme.
A Dallas FED report Tuesday highlighted the big strides in battery technology over the past 30 years, while noting the improvements still needed if EVs are going to move from 2% of US vehicle sales to anything resembling the 17% target the EPA just set for 2026.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk
The Struggle For Renewable Producers Continues As A Rapid Influx Of Supply And Crashing Credit Prices Make Biodiesel
The sigh of relief selloff continues in energy markets Tuesday morning, with gasoline prices now down more than 20 cents in 7 sessions, while diesel prices have dropped 26 cents in the past 12. Crude oil prices are within a few pennies of reaching a 1 month low as a lack of headlines from the world’s hot spots allows some reflection into the state of the world’s spare capacity for both oil and refined products.
Gasoline prices are trading near a 6-week low this morning, but still need to fall about another nickel in order to break the weekly trendline that pushed prices steadily higher since December. If that trend breaks, it will be safer to say that we saw the end of the spring gasoline rally on April 12th for the 2nd year in a row. Last year RBOB futures peaked on April 12 at $2.8943 and bottomed out on May 4th at $2.2500. The high (at this point) for this year was set on April 12th at $2.8516, and the low overnight was $2.6454.
It’s not just energy commodities that are seeing an unwind of the “flight to safety” trade: Gold prices had their biggest selloff in 2 years Monday and continue to point lower today. Just how much money poured into commodities in the weeks leading up to the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran is unclear, but we have seen in year’s past that these unwind-events can create a snowball effect as traders can be forced to sell to cover their margin calls.
Supply > Demand: The EIA this morning highlighted the record setting demand for natural gas in the US last year, which was not nearly enough to offset the glut of supply that forced prices to a record low in February. A shortage of natural gas in Europe was a key driver of the chaotic markets that smashed just about every record in 2022, and an excess of natural gas supply in Europe and the US this year is acting as a buffer, particularly on diesel prices.
The struggle for renewable producers continues as a rapid influx of supply and crashing credit prices make Biodiesel, RD and SAF unprofitable for many. In addition to the plant closures announced in the past 6 months, Vertex Energy reported Monday it’s operating its Renewable Diesel facility in Mobile AL at just 50% of capacity in Q1. The truly scary part for many is that the $1/gallon Blender's tax credit ends this year and is being replaced by the “Clean” Fuel production credit that forces producers to prove their emissions reductions in order to qualify for an increased subsidy. It’s impossible to say at this point how much the net reduction will be for domestic producers, but importers will get nothing, and at current CI values, many biodiesel producers may see their “blend credit” cut by more than half.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.