Gasoline Prices Touch Fresh Three-Year High

Market TalkMonday, Mar 15 2021
Pivotal Week For Price Action

The energy complex is seeing a modest round of selling Monday morning, after gasoline prices touched a fresh three year high overnight. Diesel prices were leading the move lower initially, after ULSD futures failed to break above the highs set a week ago, and signaling that buyers may finally be losing their conviction after one of the largest rallies on record. We’ll need to see another 5-6 cents of losses before the bullish trend line is threatened however, and with the recent buy-the-dip pattern well established, it’s too soon to see this as more than just another small correction.

RBOB futures broke through the highs from 2019 Friday morning, ending the chance of a double top pattern at that level, and set a new, three year high at $2.17 before pulling back in the past few hours. The next big test on the gasoline charts is the 2018 high of $2.2855, and after that we’d need to 2014 when prices were still in the $3 range to find major chart resistance. Given the spare oil and refining capacity globally, it seems unlikely that we could make a serious run at the $3 mark, but then again, when priced dipped below $1 November 1 it seemed unlikely we’d see prices double over the next 4.5 months.

No major developments in the refinery restart races. Diesel remains tight across large portions of the southern U.S., while regular unleaded is generally well supplied. One complication popped up Friday as Colonial pipeline reported that the slower flow rates caused by refinery cuts along the Gulf Coast may mean shippers in the South East may struggle to turn their tanks ahead of the spring RVP transition. 

RIN prices continued their run higher Friday, with both the D4 and D6 contracts trading near all-time highs north of $1.40. Ethanol prices have quietly joined the rally reaching new three year highs, as strong export volumes and corn prices both add to the bullish tone set by gasoline prices. One thing this new RIN rally may encourage is for E15 blends to finally find some momentum in locations capable of handling them since there’s a strong financial incentive to blend more ethanol given the big RIN discounts at play.

OPEC increased its global GDP and oil demand estimates in its March oil market report, thanks in large part to the viral spread of fiscal stimulus around the world, in addition to vaccine rollouts that are beginning to get people moving again. The cartel’s output dropped by 647mb/day during the month, as Saudi Arabia made good on its pledge to cut around one million barrels/day of output, which allowed other country’s to increase their output and take advantage of the higher prices. Even though the OPEC & friends agreement was not changed at the last meeting, Saudi Arabia has no obligation to continue that extra million barrel cut, and the timing with which it brings those barrels back online could be pivotal for prices across the entire energy complex.

In other non-restart refinery news today: More bad news for the Limetree Bay (FKA Hovensa) refinery as it comes under more scrutiny from the EPA, this time for a February disruption that polluted water in neighboring communities. Neste has announced it has picked the port of Rotterdam as the site of a new renewable fuel production facility it intends to build, but won’t have more detailed plans on the exact location or timing until the end of the year. 

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Mar 27 2024

Most Energy Contracts Are Ticking Lower For A 2nd Day After A Trickle Of Selling Picked Up Steam Tuesday

Most energy contracts are ticking lower for a 2nd day after a trickle of selling picked up steam Tuesday. ULSD futures are down a dime from Monday’s highs and RBOB futures are down 7 cents.

Diesel prices continue to look like the weak link in the energy chain, with futures coming within 1 point of their March lows overnight, setting up a test of the December lows around $2.48 if that resistance breaks down. Despite yesterday’s slide, RBOB futures still look bullish on the weekly charts, with a run towards the $3 mark still looking like a strong possibility in the next month or so.

The API reported crude stocks increased by more than 9 million barrels last week, while distillates were up 531,000 and gasoline stocks continued their seasonal decline falling by 4.4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.

RIN values have recovered to their highest levels in 2 months around $.59/RIN for D4 and D6 RINs, even though the recovery rally in corn and soybean prices that had helped lift prices off of the 4 year lows set in February has stalled out. Expectations for more biofuel production to be shut in due to weak economics with lower subsidy values seems to be encouraging the tick higher in recent weeks, although prices are still about $1/RIN lower than this time last year.

Reminder that Friday is one of only 3 annual holidays in which the Nymex is completely shut, so no prices will be published, but it’s not a federal holiday in the US so banks will be open.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkTuesday, Mar 26 2024

Refined Products Seeing Small Losses Of Around A Penny While Crude Oil Contracts Hover Just Above Break Even

Energy futures are taking a breather to start Tuesday’s trading, with refined products seeing small losses of around a penny while crude oil contracts hover just above break even.

No new news on either the Red Sea shipping or Russian Refining attacks this morning, so Cocoa prices seem to be taking over the commodity headlines while energy markets wait on their next big move.

RBOB gasoline futures set a new 6-month high Monday at $2.7711, which leaves the door open on the weekly charts for the spring rally to continue. A run at the $3 mark is certainly possible in the next few weeks before the typical seasonal price peak is set just before the start of driving season.

A container ship lost power and crashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this morning, causing a devastating collapse. While cargo shipping into the area will no doubt be impacted by this event, fuel supplies are unlikely to see any notable change since the 9 fuel terminals in Baltimore are primarily supplied by Colonial pipeline. Barges from Philadelphia refineries do supplement Baltimore supplies at times, and those vessel flows will be impacted at least until rescue operations are completed and the bridge sections removed from the waterway. That said, since shipping up from the Gulf Coast via Colonial is generally cheaper than shipping an NY Harbor-priced barrel south, the amount of supply disrupted by this event will be minimal.

While we’re still waiting on the official forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane season, early reports continue to suggest that we could be in for a very busy year due to warm water temperatures and a forming La Nina pattern.

Dallas meanwhile is preparing for a different sort of disruption, with city officials encouraging companies to let employees work from home during the solar eclipse on April 8th as metroplex traffic is expected to surge. While some isolated fuel outages are certainly possible if people start panic buying gasoline they don’t need, there’s no reason to expect any widespread impact from the demand spike.

Today’s interesting read: Why AI requires a staggering amount of electricity and may create supply competition for EVs that will end up benefitting fossil fuels.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.