Is A Collapse Imminent?

Market TalkThursday, Sep 3 2020
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Just a few days after pushing six month highs, energy futures are hitting multi-month lows this morning, and threatening a technical breakdown that could bring product prices back below one dollar/gallon. A rising dollar, softer equities and concerns for fall demand all taking credit for the early selling. While the drop has been significant – gasoline prices in some markets are down more than 20 cents in a week - we have seen multiple similar moves this summer only to bounce each time technical support gets tested, so it’s still too soon to say a collapse is imminent.

The disruptions to the energy operations along the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Laura are easy to see in the DOE charts below, but you’ll also notice how most operational issues pale in comparison to what we saw from Harvey in 2017, which provides some insight into why the industry had a huge sigh of relief when the storm shifted east.

Oil imports reached their lowest level in 28 years as ships stayed out to sea to ride out the storm, crude oil output dropped by more than 10 percent to its lowest in three years, as Gulf of Mexico platforms were shuttered temporarily and refinery runs dropped by one million barrels per day. This all added up to substantial inventory draws. The fact that most of these operations are already returning to normal within one week after landfall helps explain why the market sold off following the report, as concerns quickly shifted to issues with demand rather than a threat to supply.


The exception to that rule is the refinery output number. Early reports suggest it could be several weeks before the two Lake Charles area facilities operating before the storm might be able to attempt a restart, and with the fall turnaround season about to kick off, we could see more declines in run rates over the next several weeks. 

In addition to the storm-related issues, demand and margins aren’t encouraging a resurgence in refinery runs either. The weekly estimate from the DOE showed total U.S. petroleum demand dropping to a 13 week low, and the flush in product prices this week has crack spreads pushing multi-year lows. A WSJ article this morning suggests that European refiners are most likely to see the next wave of closures and conversions as the industry deals with a glut of refining capacity, while U.S. facilities will benefit from their outlets to central and south America.

Speaking of central America, Hurricane Nana made landfall in Belize overnight, while Omar continues tracking out to sea. There are three more potential systems being tracked by the NHC, one of which has 70 percent odds of further development, making it likely we’ll see Paulette named just in time to hit the peak of the season.

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Apr 18 2024

The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days

The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.

The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.

An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.

Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.

In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.

The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.

Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.

Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.

PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.

Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Apr 17 2024

Prices To Lease Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Rally This Week

Energy markets are sliding lower again to start Wednesday’s trading as demand concerns and weaker stock markets around the world seem to be outweighing any supply concerns for the time being.

Rumors continue to swirl about an “imminent” response by Israel to Iran’s attacks, but so far, no news seems to be taken as good news in the hopes that further escalation can be avoided, even as tensions near the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer.

Prices to lease space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to rally this week, trading north of 11 cents/gallon as Gulf Coast producers still struggle to find outlets for their production, despite a healthy export market. Gulf Coast CBOB is trading at discounts of around 34 cents to futures, while Gulf Coast RBOB is trading around a 16-cent discount, which gives shippers room to pay up for the linespace and still deliver into the East Coast markets at a profit.

Back to reality, or just the start of more volatility? California CARBOB basis values have dropped back to “only” 40 cent premiums to RBOB futures this week, as multiple flaring events at California refineries don’t appear to have impacted supply. The state has been an island for fuel supplies for many years as its boutique grades prevent imports from neighboring states, and now add the conversion of the P66 Rodeo refinery to renewable diesel production and the pending changes to try and cap refinery profits, and it’s easier to understand why these markets are increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes on gasoline.

RIN prices continue to fall this week, touching 44 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 values Tuesday, their lowest level in 6 weeks and just about a nickel above a 4-year low. While the sharp drop in RIN and LCFS values has caused several biodiesel and Renewable Diesel producers to either shut down or limit production, the growth in RIN generation continues thanks to projects like the Rodeo refinery conversion, making the supply in RINs still outpace the demand set by the Renewable Fuel Standard by a wide margin.

The API reported draws in refined products, 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 427,000 barrels for distillates, while crude oil stocks had an estimated build of more than 4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.


Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.