Energy Futures Selling Off For 2nd Straight Day

Energy futures are selling off for a 2nd straight day, pulling oil prices back from 2-month highs reached Friday and now setting up a test of the low end of November’s trading range. The choppy, range-bound action suggests traders are taking a wait and see approach with the US China trade discussions ongoing and the OPEC meeting less than 2 weeks away.

Trade pessimism is taking some of the early blame for the 2nd day of selling, as are reports that Russia is not willing to cut production further to assist OPEC with stabilizing global prices.

It’s easy to forget that the Atlantic hurricane season runs through November following a quiet couple of weeks, but the NHC is now giving an 80% chance of development to a system over the next 2 days. Early forecasts keep this system out over open water, but we’ll need to watch this week to make sure there isn’t a shift to the west.

The EIA published its annual report on US carbon emissions last week. The report showed that after 3 straight years of declines, and a 10 year average rate of -1.7%, emissions from the energy industry increased in 2018, largely due to a colder winter and warmer summer increasing demands on home heating and cooling. That report will keep the pressure up on agencies like the IEA, which has come under fire for not doing enough to stem the tide of climate change.

Speaking of pressure, 23 US states have joined a lawsuit against the EPA to try and maintain the right to set emission standards for vehicles separately from Federal requirements. While this lawsuit may have little impact on supply or demand near term, it does make it clear that climate-related issues will stay in the forefront of conversation in the coming year.

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