Wholesale Gasoline Prices Have Dropped To Their Lowest Levels Since Last Christmas

Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels since last Christmas, after 3 weeks of selling that will give consumers across most of the country something to be thankful for this week. Crude oil and diesel prices have also come under pressure and are currently holding near technical support levels that look pivotal for price action for the remainder of the year. 

One unusual note about this selloff: WTI has slipped into a slight contango with the December contract trading roughly 20 cents less than January, a phenomenon we haven’t seen in over a year.   That shift in the price curve follows reports that European refiners are actually oversupplied with crude oil, as traders have done too good of a job preparing for the upcoming embargo on Russian imports. Now that crude oil inventories are filling up ahead of their December deadline, the question is if the same feat can be accomplished for diesel before that ban hits in February. 

Right on cue, Kuwait’s new 600mb/day refinery, the largest in the Middle East, continues to slowly bring units online, and reportedly sold its first distillate cargo into the export market this week. While the new refining capacity is certainly welcomed in a world starving for diesel fuel, the challenge will be finding enough cargoes to get that fuel where it needs to go, and tanker rates that are surging as a result.

Meanwhile, while many headlines focused on Qatar not serving beer at the world cup, the country was closing on the longest supply deal in history to supply China with LNG for 27 years.  Long term deals are critical in the LNG market that requires billion dollar facilities to be able to freeze the gas before it can be loaded on ships, and as part of the reason the world is essentially “sold out” on new LNG for the next 3-4 years. 

Money managers reduced their length in petroleum contracts last week with a combination of new short positions and liquidated longs both contributing to the drop.  The total positions held, and the open interest in all contracts continues to suggest there’s plenty of money that’s not playing in the energy arena these days, and whether or not it ever comes back may have a large impact on how prices behave in the coming year.  

Baker Hughes reported a net increase of 1 oil rig and 2 natural gas rigs drilling in the US last week. The total of 623 oil rigs is the highest since the pandemic shutdown started in March 2023, but is still 60 rigs lower than pre-COVID levels. 

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