Petroleum Futures Higher After An Afternoon Sell-Off In Equity Markets Thursday
The bulls are at it again, pushing petroleum futures higher after an afternoon sell-off in equity markets Thursday seemed to temporarily limit the upward momentum.
ULSD futures are trading higher for a 10th consecutive session, and the bulls hold an undefeated record for 2022 so far. The February contract has added 30 cents in those 10 sessions since the NYE selloff, and if that pace of increase continues, will put diesel prices somewhere around $8/gallon by the end of the year. When you look at it that way, the flashing “overbought” signals on the daily charts make more sense, showing that ULSD is begging for a pullback, but the weekly charts still suggest now that $2.60 was broken, there’s a good chance we’ll see an attempt to rally to the $2.80 range, which happened to be a price floor back in 2014 before prices collapsed.
Most physical diesel markets continue to be much less enthusiastic than futures, with basis values sliding and rack spreads vs spot markets holding well below break-even levels in many markets. The collapse in Midwestern ULSD spreads has opened up the theoretical arbitrage window to bring diesel out of the midcontinent towards the gulf & east coasts, but then again, that would require a truck (presumably with a driver) and roads that aren’t covered in snow or ice, none of which look like a likely option over the next few days.
Winter Storm Izzy is expected to bring heavy snow and ice to a large part of the country this weekend and an extended stretch of cold weather behind it goes a long way to explain why ULSD futures look strong while physical diesel across most of the country that doesn’t need diesel for heating or electricity generation looks weak.
For the most part, the storm is going to hit parts of the US that have winter every year and should not be an unusual event. The biggest concern (for now) is that parts of TN, GA and the Carolinas all could get covered in ice, and they simply aren’t equipped to deal with it. In years past when we’ve seen this type of event, there were numerous terminal closures due to frozen pipes and other damaged equipment just in time for a surge in diesel demand as electricity companies need to supplement their output to keep up with the surge in demand.
Reminder that Monday is MLK Jr. day, so spot markets in the US won’t be assessed and banks will be closed. That means most rack prices will carry through from tonight to Tuesday, and most industry participants will hope that futures don’t have a repeat of the Black Friday or NYE selloffs.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.
Week 15 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Prices To Lease Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Rally This Week
Energy markets are sliding lower again to start Wednesday’s trading as demand concerns and weaker stock markets around the world seem to be outweighing any supply concerns for the time being.
Rumors continue to swirl about an “imminent” response by Israel to Iran’s attacks, but so far, no news seems to be taken as good news in the hopes that further escalation can be avoided, even as tensions near the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer.
Prices to lease space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to rally this week, trading north of 11 cents/gallon as Gulf Coast producers still struggle to find outlets for their production, despite a healthy export market. Gulf Coast CBOB is trading at discounts of around 34 cents to futures, while Gulf Coast RBOB is trading around a 16-cent discount, which gives shippers room to pay up for the linespace and still deliver into the East Coast markets at a profit.
Back to reality, or just the start of more volatility? California CARBOB basis values have dropped back to “only” 40 cent premiums to RBOB futures this week, as multiple flaring events at California refineries don’t appear to have impacted supply. The state has been an island for fuel supplies for many years as its boutique grades prevent imports from neighboring states, and now add the conversion of the P66 Rodeo refinery to renewable diesel production and the pending changes to try and cap refinery profits, and it’s easier to understand why these markets are increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes on gasoline.
RIN prices continue to fall this week, touching 44 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 values Tuesday, their lowest level in 6 weeks and just about a nickel above a 4-year low. While the sharp drop in RIN and LCFS values has caused several biodiesel and Renewable Diesel producers to either shut down or limit production, the growth in RIN generation continues thanks to projects like the Rodeo refinery conversion, making the supply in RINs still outpace the demand set by the Renewable Fuel Standard by a wide margin.
The API reported draws in refined products, 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 427,000 barrels for distillates, while crude oil stocks had an estimated build of more than 4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.