Refined Products Are Teetering On The Edge Of A Technical Breakdown To Wrap Up Trading For The First Half Of The Year
Refined products are teetering on the edge of a technical breakdown to wrap up trading for the first half of the year. While two days of heavy selling has the energy complex in a defensive stance, support on the charts has not yet completely given way, meaning it’s still too soon to call a top in prices even though we’ve had a major pullback in the past two weeks.
RBOB prices are trading 62 cents below their June highs this morning, but still need to break and hold below $3.64 before the technical breakdown can be confirmed. Keep in mind that today’s expiration of the July RBOB contract will knock about 10 cents off of prompt values, which adds to the bearish outlook on the charts. IF the trend support and June lows break today, don’t be surprised to see prices make a run at $3 later this summer.
ULSD prices are in a similar spot, trading 64 cents below where they were less than 2 weeks ago, but they’ve rallied more than 6 cents from their overnight low at $3.95, giving the bulls a chance to hang on to the trend that’s pushed prices up from $2 in December. If prices drop and hold below $4, that trend will be officially broken which opens the door to a run at $3.50 in the next few weeks despite the well-documented fundamental issues with distillates.
Yesterday’s long-awaited DOE report, which provided a rare 2 weeks’ worth of data due to system issues seemed to be a catalyst for some of the selling in products, as inventory levels for both gasoline and diesel saw healthy increases in both of the past 2 weeks, while demand estimates slumped well below average levels for this time of year. Those data points also coincide with the latest slide in equity markets as some traders seem to be convinced that high prices may have already started to cure themselves, and the solution to the imbalance in fuel markets will come from a big drop in consumption.
US refiners are running at 95% capacity, but an EIA note suggests that in reality they’re effectively maxed out due to the normal operational constraints on those facilities that are much more complicated to operate than many believe. That report also highlights that US capacity is expected to decline for a third straight year in 2022 with 2 more plants scheduled to be shut down or converted, unless the record high margin environment convinces someone with a few billion dollars to reopen those plants.
Reminder: Today is the last day for July RBN and HON futures contracts, so for those in the NYH and Group 3 markets that haven’t already transitioned to an August price reference will need to watch the RBQ and HOQ contracts for direction today. The backwardation in products is not nearly as extreme as we’ve seen over the past few months, but there will still be a noticeable drop when August futures take the prompt position that will confuse some tomorrow when cash markets don’t follow.
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View AllRefined Products Bounce Back And Forth Across The Break-Even Line To Start Friday’s Trading
The choppy action continues for energy markets with refined products bouncing back and forth across the break-even line to start Friday’s trading after some big swings Thursday.
RBOB futures led the rollercoaster ride Thursday, trading up 4 cents in the early morning hours, only to see those gains turn into 10 cent losses mid-morning, and then erasing most of those losses in the early afternoon following an ENT report of unplanned maintenance at the largest refinery on the East Coast.
The selling portion of the ride was blamed on a combination of an increase in jobless claims, and the disruptive impacts of the Canadian wildfires on the major population centers along the East Coast. While air traffic has been disrupted, so far there are not any reports of delays in ship traffic around the New York Harbor, and the strong basis and time spreads we’ve seen in NY have been easing this week, so it appears that this event is more concerning to the demand side of the equation than supply.
From a technical perspective, it’s not surprising to see this type of back-and-forth action as most petroleum contracts look to be stuck in neutral territory on the charts, which encourages trading programs to sell as prices get towards the top end of a range, and buy when it gets to the low end.
The Atlantic Hurricane season is off to a quiet start with no tropical development expected over the next week, but NOAA did issue an El Nino advisory Thursday that suggests the warm-water pattern in the Pacific could reach “supersized” levels and create all sorts of disruptive events. Perhaps most notable in the report is that forecasters don’t believe this year’s El Nino will have the same dampening impact on Atlantic hurricanes due to record warm temperatures in the water. Here’s a brief recap in case you missed the most memorable El Nino from 25 years ago.
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Gasoline Futures Rally Despite Inventory Builds, Increased Throughput
Gasoline futures led another strong rally in the energy complex Wednesday and continued marching higher overnight before pulling back to near break-even levels around 7:45am central.
The RBOB contract has now wiped out the post-Memorial Day selloff, and erased the losses from the contract roll to July, setting up another test of the May highs at $2.73. If that resistance breaks, there’s a good chance we see another run at the $2.90 level, but if it holds we are probably still stuck in a sideways pattern as we move through the summer months. West Coast gasoline prices meanwhile have reached a 3-month high as surging basis values compound the move in futures.
The rally came despite healthy inventory builds for refined products and strong refinery runs across all 5 PADDs reported last week, with traders (or their algorithms) appearing to focus instead on healthy demand estimates in the DOE’s weekly status report. Gasoline also saw healthy exports last week, while diesel shipments overseas continued their decline which has helped keep downward pressure on diesel prices, which is essentially the polar opposite of what we were experiencing a year ago.
Lies, damned Lies and statistics: PADD 3 refinery utilization hit 98.8% of the official capacity figure last week, which would mark a 5 year high, except the numbers are wrong. The DOE still isn’t including recent capacity additions of almost 300mb/day in those stats, so the actual figure is about 3% lower. Don’t worry though, the lack of accurate data probably isn’t intentional. The DOE recently announced it was suspending data collection for some of its monthly reports as the agency is still struggling to overcome the IT Systems failure they experienced a year ago. Add this to the realization that the official crude production and petroleum demand figures have been incorrect due to a lack of clarity surrounding condensate production that comes along with oil output.
Speaking of which, the official US Oil output figure surged to the highest levels since the COVID lockdowns began more than 3 years ago last week. No word from the EIA if this means actual production increased, or if they’ve just changed the way they’re reporting the molecules coming out of the ground.
Irving Oil released a statement highlighting a strategic review of the company, that could include selling the business that’s been held by the Irving family for nearly 100 years. The Irving Refinery in New Brunswick is Canada’s largest at 300mb/day and is the largest importer of fuels into the northeastern US. Critics are arguing that the review is an attempt to politicize Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation that could weigh on the refinery’s profitability when it goes into full effect in July or could simply incentivize the facility to send more product to the US.
RIN values saw their first bounce in a couple of weeks, with both D6 and D4 values climbing back above the $1.40 mark after their recent slide from the mid $1.50s. We’re still 6 days away from the EPA’s deadline to issue the final RFS ruling for the next couple of years.
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Energy Prices Fluctuate: Chinese Imports Surge, Saudi Arabia Cuts Output and Buys Golf
Energy prices continue their back-and-forth trading, starting Wednesday’s session with modest gains, after a round of selling Tuesday wiped out the Saudi output cut bounce.
A surge in China’s imports of crude oil and natural gas seem to be the catalyst for the early move higher, even though weak export activity from the world’s largest fuel buyer suggests the global economy is still struggling.
New tactic? Saudi Arabia’s plan to voluntarily cut oil production by another 1 million barrels/day failed to sustain a rally in oil prices to start the week, so they bought the PGA tour.
The EIA’s monthly Short Term Energy Outlook raised its price forecast for oil, citing the Saudi cuts, and OPEC’s commitment to extend current production restrictions through 2024. The increase in prices comes despite reducing the forecast for US fuel consumption, as GDP growth projections continue to decline from previous estimates.
The report included a special article on diesel consumption, and its changing relationship with economic activity that does a good job of explaining why diesel prices are $2/gallon cheaper today than they were a year ago.
The API reported healthy builds in refined product inventories last week, with distillates up 4.5 million barrels while gasoline stocks were up 2.4 million barrels in the wake of Memorial Day. Crude inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels on the week. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
We’re still waiting on the EPA’s final ruling on the Renewable Fuel Standard for the next few years, which is due a week from today, but another Reuters article suggests that eRINs will not be included in this round of making up the rules.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.