Stairs Up, Elevator Down For Energy And Equity Markets
It’s a case of stairs up, elevator down for energy and equity markets as a broad selloff overnight wiped out all of last week’s gains in just a few hours. It appears there’s a bit of “buy the rumor, sell the news” in today’s big drop as the long-awaited congressional stimulus package was finally passed over the weekend, but it came with strings attached – most notably some restrictions on the FED’s emergency lending capabilities.
The U.S. Dollar has had a strong rally as it appears the money printing press will now have to get more approval before cranking up going forward, which matters more to Wall Street bankers than the $600 checks being sent to lower-income earners elsewhere. The bright side of this phenomenon is it brings back one of our favorite news characters, the “Head-in-hands trader” who tends to make an appearance any time we get a big sell-off.
In addition, there’s a new strain of COVID reported in England, that has much of Europe and Canada restricting travel to and from the UK as a result. Fears that the new strain could offset progress made with the vaccines seems to be spooking markets, but some reports suggest that the vaccines are still likely to be effective against the new strain.
Given the huge run-up in process we’ve seen since Nov. 1, we could easily see another 10-15 cents of downside for refined products in a normal correction of that rally unless buyers are able to get prices back above the upward sloping trend lines soon. That said, we saw similar rounds of steady buying capped off by a large sell-off in June, August and September, and each time the market recovered the losses within a week or two.
Money managers continued to add net-length across the petroleum contracts last week, enjoying the seventh straight week of gains. Their reaction to this selloff, the largest in nearly 2 months, may make a big difference in whether or not this ends up being just a correction, or the end of the line for the rally.
Baker Hughes reported a net increase of 5 oil rigs drilling in the U.S. last week. The Permian basin increased by 5, while the Eagle Ford, DJ and Woodford basins all decreased by 1, which were offset by gains in other smaller plays.
The increased drilling activity is also registering on the Dallas FED’s Texas jobs forecast, as one of several positive leading indicators suggesting the employment recovery from the spring COVID collapse should continue through December.
Add another refinery to the scrap heap: Portugal’s oil & gas company announced it would shutter the smaller of its two refineries (which has roughly 100mb/day capacity) permanently due to the impact of COVID, and the regulatory environment.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.
Week 15 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Prices To Lease Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Rally This Week
Energy markets are sliding lower again to start Wednesday’s trading as demand concerns and weaker stock markets around the world seem to be outweighing any supply concerns for the time being.
Rumors continue to swirl about an “imminent” response by Israel to Iran’s attacks, but so far, no news seems to be taken as good news in the hopes that further escalation can be avoided, even as tensions near the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer.
Prices to lease space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to rally this week, trading north of 11 cents/gallon as Gulf Coast producers still struggle to find outlets for their production, despite a healthy export market. Gulf Coast CBOB is trading at discounts of around 34 cents to futures, while Gulf Coast RBOB is trading around a 16-cent discount, which gives shippers room to pay up for the linespace and still deliver into the East Coast markets at a profit.
Back to reality, or just the start of more volatility? California CARBOB basis values have dropped back to “only” 40 cent premiums to RBOB futures this week, as multiple flaring events at California refineries don’t appear to have impacted supply. The state has been an island for fuel supplies for many years as its boutique grades prevent imports from neighboring states, and now add the conversion of the P66 Rodeo refinery to renewable diesel production and the pending changes to try and cap refinery profits, and it’s easier to understand why these markets are increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes on gasoline.
RIN prices continue to fall this week, touching 44 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 values Tuesday, their lowest level in 6 weeks and just about a nickel above a 4-year low. While the sharp drop in RIN and LCFS values has caused several biodiesel and Renewable Diesel producers to either shut down or limit production, the growth in RIN generation continues thanks to projects like the Rodeo refinery conversion, making the supply in RINs still outpace the demand set by the Renewable Fuel Standard by a wide margin.
The API reported draws in refined products, 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 427,000 barrels for distillates, while crude oil stocks had an estimated build of more than 4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.