Stock Markets Around The World Are Tumbling
Oil prices surged north of $100, and several RBOB and ULSD contracts traded north of $3/gallon overnight, up nearly 20 cents/gallon so far this morning, after a full-on Russian assault of Ukraine. Stock markets around the world are tumbling, as solutions to this conflict seem to all come with a high level of economic and/or human damage.
More sanctions have already been promised by the US and allied countries, and Ukraine has requested that Turkey close off the Black Sea straits, which would block Russian warships, and roughly 2 million barrels/day of oil shipments.
So, how high can prices go now? The charts show a pretty strong band of resistance for crude oil around the $110 range, which repelled rallies in 2011, 2012 and 2013, prior to prices collapsing late in 2014. For refined products there’s a wider range between $3.20-$3.40 that acted as a price ceiling during those years, that should at least act as a stopping point if this rally continues. If for some reason prices break through those chart layers, then we’d target the 2008 highs. That said, the best cure for high prices is high prices, and this latest spike may end up forcing prices lower later this year by forcing drivers off the road and travelers to reconsider their European vacations.
As the charts below show, the US does import oil and refined products from Russia, but the relatively small fraction of the country’s declining import demand should be replaceable and most likely swapped with barrels that would otherwise go to a sanctions-resistant buyer like China.
While the war in Ukraine will no doubt dominate headlines, the pipeline formerly known as Plantation was closed Wednesday to investigate a possible leak in a suburb of Atlanta. While there are no reported connections between the situations, the timing is certainly a harsh reminder that Russian hackers took the nearby Colonial pipeline offline for almost a week last year, and that new cyber-attacks should be expected if the new cold war continues to escalate. The winter storm sweeping the eastern half of the country may delay the repairs on the plantation line, but it’s also keeping many drivers off the road so it may not have as much of an impact on regional supplies if it can come back online in a day or two.
While the 7-8% increases in oil and refined product futures are obviously a big deal, they pale in comparison to natural gas prices in European markets that are up roughly 30% on the day so far. As has been widely reported over the past few months in the runup to this conflict, Europe gets roughly 40% of its natural gas supplies from Russia. The EIA this week highlighted how the US, Qatar and Russia account for 70% of all European LNG imports, but the unfortunate reality is there simply is not capacity currently to replace the Russian supplies.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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“Buy The Rumor, Sell The News” Seems To Be The Trading Pattern Of The Week
“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” seems to be the trading pattern of the week as oil and refined products dropped sharply Thursday after OPEC & Friends announced another round of output cuts for the first quarter of next year.
Part of the reason for the decline following that report is that it appears that the cartel wasn’t able to reach an official agreement on the plan for next year, prompting those that could volunteer their own production cuts without forcing restrictions on others. In addition, OPEC members not named Saudi Arabia are notorious for exceeding official quotas when they are able to, and Russia appears to be (surprise) playing games by announcing a cut that is made up of both crude oil and refined products, which are already restricted and thus allow an incremental increase of exports.
Diesel futures are leading the way lower this morning, following a 13-cent drop from their morning highs Thursday, and came within 3-cents of a new 4-month low overnight. The prompt contract did leave a gap on the chart due to the backwardation between December and January contracts, which cut out another nickel from up front values.
Gasoline futures meanwhile are down 15-cents from yesterday’s pre-OPEC highs and are just 7-cents away from reaching a new 1-year low.
Cash markets across most of the country are looking soft as they often do this time of year, with double digit discounts to futures becoming the rule across the Gulf Coast and Mid Continent. The West Coast is mixed with diesel prices seeing big discounts in San Francisco, despite multiple refinery upsets this week, while LA clings to small premiums.
Ethanol prices continue to hold near multi-year lows this week as controversy over the fuel swirls. Corn growing states filed a motion this week trying to compel the courts to force the EPA to waive pollution laws to allow E15 blends. Meanwhile, the desire to grow even more corn to produce Jet Fuel is being hotly debated as the environmental impacts depend on which side of the food to fuel lobby you talk to.
The chaotic canal congestion in Panama is getting worse as authorities are continuing to reduce the daily number of ships transiting due to low water levels. Those delays are hitting many industries, energy included, and are now spilling over to one of the world’s other key shipping bottlenecks.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
No Official Word From OPEC Yet On Their Output Agreement For Next Year
Energy prices are pushing higher to start Thursday’s session after a big bounce Wednesday helped the complex maintain its upward momentum for the week.
There’s no official word from OPEC yet on their output agreement for next year, but the rumor-mill is in high gear as always leading up to the official announcement, if one is actually made at all. A Reuters article this morning suggests that “sources” believe Saudi Arabia will continue leading the cartel with a voluntary output cut of around 1-million BPD to begin the year and given the recent drop in prices that seems like a logical move.
We saw heavy selling in the immediate wake of the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, only to see prices reverse course sharply later in the day. ULSD was down more than 9-cents for a few minutes following the report but bounced more than 7-cents in the afternoon and is leading the push higher this morning so far.
It’s common to see demand drop sharply following a holiday, particularly for diesel as many commercial users simply shut down their operations for several days, but last week’s drop in implied diesel demand was one of the largest on record for the DOE’s estimates. That drop in demand, along with higher refinery runs, helped push diesel inventories higher in all markets, and the weekly days of supply estimate jumped from below the 5-year seasonal range around 25 days of supply to above the high end of the range at 37 days of supply based on last week’s estimated usage although it’s all but guaranteed we’ll see a correction higher in demand next week.
Gasoline demand also slumped, dropping to the low end of the seasonal range, and below year-ago levels for the first time in 5-weeks. You’d never guess that based on the bounce in gasoline prices that followed the DOE’s report however, with traders appearing to bet that the demand slump in a seasonal anomaly and tighter than average inventories may drive a counter-seasonal price rally.
Refinery runs increased across the country as plants returned to service following the busiest fall maintenance season in at least 4-years. While total refinery run rates are still below last year’s levels, they’re now above the 5-year average with more room to increase as no major upsets have been reported to keep a large amount of throughput offline.
The exception to the refinery run ramp up comes from PADD 4 which was the only region to see a decline last week after Suncor apparently had another inopportune upset at its beleaguered facility outside Denver.
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends today, and it will go down as the 4th most active season on record, even though it certainly didn’t feel too severe given that the US dodged most of the storms.
Today is also the expiration day for December 2023 ULSD and RBOB futures so look to the January contracts (RBF and HOF) for price direction if your market hasn’t already rolled.
More refineries ready to change hands next year? With Citgo scheduled to be auctioned off, Irving Oil undergoing a strategic evaluation, and multiple new refineries possibly coming online, 2024 was already looking to be a turbulent year for refinery owners. Phillips 66 was indicating that it may sell off some of its refinery assets, but a new activist investor may upend those plans, along with the company’s directors.