Traders Consider Refined Products' Technical Landscape
ULSD futures broke their December lows Monday morning and promptly dropped another 10 cents in a classic technical follow through after support fails to hold. Since then, however prices have bounced by 18 cents in a sign that the computer programs that make up most daily trading are still capable of buying, and that the bulls aren’t completely capitulating after a 92 cent drop in 10 trading days. If prices can remain above the $2.76 range than that brief foray to $2.66 will look like a bear trap on the charts, and we could be set for another run above $3 as the market works off an oversold condition. That said, if $2.76 fails again, then this may be nothing more than a brief corrective bounce on the way to $2.50.
RBOB gasoline futures dropped 44 cents during this sell-off bottoming out at $2.02 on Friday and have taken the lead in the recovery rally taking back 1/3 of those losses already. If the bounce in gasoline prices continues, there’s a potential for a reverse head and shoulders weekly chart pattern that would mark the end of the bear market in place since prices topped out at $4.32 in June and would set the stage for a classic spring rally that would push futures north of $3 again.
RINs have also joined in the selling over the past several sessions, falling to a 6-month low, albeit in a much less dramatic fashion than the notoriously volatile swings we’ve become accustomed to over the past decade.
Another fire at a Russian oil refinery is raising questions about whether sabotage at strategic facilities within the country is expanding, if the removal of Western experts from the Russian energy industry is taking a toll, or perhaps they’re just like any other refinery in the world, susceptible to fires as they put millions of gallons of flammable liquids under high heat and pressure.
Speaking of which, a week after an Iranian refinery mysteriously caught fire, the country offered to lend its “expertise” to Venezuela to help it repair and rebuild its refinery network that is operating at less than 10% of capacity due to years of neglect and mismanagement.
The death toll in Turkey and Syria has passed 5,000 after a devastating string of earthquakes. The major oil terminal on the Mediterranean remains shut but is expected to reopen today and should not have any lasting impact on energy markets.
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View AllRefined Products Are Moving Lower For A 2nd Day After Coming Under Heavy Selling Pressure In Wednesday’s Session
Refined products are moving lower for a 2nd day after coming under heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s session. Rapidly increasing refinery runs and sluggish diesel demand both seemed to weigh heavily on product prices, while crude oil is still benefitting from the disruption of exports from Iraq. Prices remain range-bound, so expect more choppy back and forth action in the weeks ahead.
US oil inventories saw a large decline last week, despite another 13-million barrels of oil being found in the weekly adjustment figure, as imports dropped to a 2-year low, and refinery runs cranked up in most regions as many facilities return from spring maintenance.
The refining utilization percentage jumped to its highest level of the year but remains overstated since the new 250,000 barrels/day of output from Exxon’s Beaumont facility still isn’t being counted in the official capacity figures. If you’re shocked that the government report could have such a glaring omission, then you haven’t been paying attention to the Crude Adjustment figure this year, and the artificially inflated petroleum demand estimates that have come with it.
Speaking of which, we’re now just a couple of months away from WTI Midland crude oil being included in the Dated Brent index, and given the uncertainty in the US over what should be classified as oil vs condensate, expect some confusion once those barrels start being included in the international benchmark as well.
Diesel demand continues to hover near the lowest levels we’ve seen for the first quarter in the past 20+ years, dropping sharply again last week after 2 straight weeks of increases had some markets hoping that the worst was behind us. Now that we’re moving out of the heating season, we’ll soon get more clarity on how on road and industrial demand is holding up on its own in the weekly figures that have been heavily influenced by the winter that wasn’t across large parts of the country.
Speaking of which, the EIA offered another mea culpa of sorts Wednesday by comparing its October Winter Fuels outlook to the current reality, which shows a huge reduction in heating demand vs expectations just 6-months ago.
It’s not just domestic consumption of diesel that’s under pressure, exports have fallen below their 5-year average as buyers in South America are buying more Russian barrels, and European nations are getting more from new facilities in the Middle East.
Take a look at the spike in PADD 5 gasoline imports last week to get a feel for how the region may soon be forced to adjust to rapidly increasing refining capacity in Asia, while domestic facilities come under pressure.
Crude Oil Prices Are Trying To Lead Another Rally In Energy Futures This Morning
Crude oil prices are trying to lead another rally in energy futures this morning, while ULSD prices are resisting the pull higher. Stocks are pointed higher in the early going as no news is seen as good news in the banking crisis.
WTI prices have rallied by $10/barrel in the past 7 trading days, even with a $5 pullback last Thursday and Friday. The recovery puts WTI back in the top half of its March trading range but there’s still another $7 to go before the highs of the month are threatened.
Yesterday’s API report seems to be aiding the continued strength in crude, with a 6 million barrel inventory decline estimated by the industry group last week. That report also showed a decline of 5.9 million barrels of gasoline which is consistent with the spring pattern of drawdowns as we move through the RVP transition, while distillates saw a build of 550k barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Diesel prices seems to be reacting both to the small build in inventories – which is yet another data point of the weak demand so far this year for distillates – and on the back of crumbling natural gas prices that settled at their lowest levels in 2.5 years yesterday and fell below $2/million BTU this morning.
While diesel futures are soft, rack markets across the Southwestern US remain unusually tight, with spreads vs spot markets approaching $1/gallon in several cases as local refiners go through maintenance and pipeline capacity for resupply remains limited. The tightest supply in the region however remains the Phoenix CBG boutique gasoline grade which is going for $1.20/gallon over spots as several of the few refineries that can make that product are having to perform maintenance at the same time.
French refinery strikes continue for a 4th week and are estimated to be keeping close to 1 million barrels/day of fuel production offline, which is roughly 90% of French capacity and almost 1% of total global capacity. That disruption is having numerous ripple effects on crude oil markets in the Atlantic basin, while the impact on refined product supplies and prices remains much more contained than it was when this happened just 5 months ago.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.