Wholesale Gasoline Prices Have Dropped To Their Lowest Levels Since Last Christmas
Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels since last Christmas, after 3 weeks of selling that will give consumers across most of the country something to be thankful for this week. Crude oil and diesel prices have also come under pressure and are currently holding near technical support levels that look pivotal for price action for the remainder of the year.
One unusual note about this selloff: WTI has slipped into a slight contango with the December contract trading roughly 20 cents less than January, a phenomenon we haven’t seen in over a year. That shift in the price curve follows reports that European refiners are actually oversupplied with crude oil, as traders have done too good of a job preparing for the upcoming embargo on Russian imports. Now that crude oil inventories are filling up ahead of their December deadline, the question is if the same feat can be accomplished for diesel before that ban hits in February.
Right on cue, Kuwait’s new 600mb/day refinery, the largest in the Middle East, continues to slowly bring units online, and reportedly sold its first distillate cargo into the export market this week. While the new refining capacity is certainly welcomed in a world starving for diesel fuel, the challenge will be finding enough cargoes to get that fuel where it needs to go, and tanker rates that are surging as a result.
Meanwhile, while many headlines focused on Qatar not serving beer at the world cup, the country was closing on the longest supply deal in history to supply China with LNG for 27 years. Long term deals are critical in the LNG market that requires billion dollar facilities to be able to freeze the gas before it can be loaded on ships, and as part of the reason the world is essentially “sold out” on new LNG for the next 3-4 years.
Money managers reduced their length in petroleum contracts last week with a combination of new short positions and liquidated longs both contributing to the drop. The total positions held, and the open interest in all contracts continues to suggest there’s plenty of money that’s not playing in the energy arena these days, and whether or not it ever comes back may have a large impact on how prices behave in the coming year.
Baker Hughes reported a net increase of 1 oil rig and 2 natural gas rigs drilling in the US last week. The total of 623 oil rigs is the highest since the pandemic shutdown started in March 2023, but is still 60 rigs lower than pre-COVID levels.
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View AllThe Energy Bulls Are On The Run This Morning, Lead By Heating And Crude Oil Futures
The energy bulls are on the run this morning, lead by heating and crude oil futures. The November HO contract is trading ~7.5 cents per gallon (2.3%) higher while WTI is bumped $1.24 per barrel (1.3%) so far in pre-market trading. Their gasoline counterpart is rallying in sympathy with .3% gains to start the day.
The October contracts for both RBOB and HO expire today, and while trading action looks to be pretty tame so far, it isn’t a rare occurrence to see some big price swings on expiring contracts as traders look to close their positions. It should be noted that the only physical market pricing still pricing their product off of October futures, while the rest of the nation already switched to the November contract over the last week or so.
We’ve now got two named storms in the Atlantic, Philippe and Rina, but both aren’t expected to develop into major storms. While most models show both storms staying out to sea, the European model for weather forecasting shows there is a possibility that Philippe gets close enough to the Northeast to bring rain to the area, but not much else.
The term “$100 oil” is starting to pop up in headlines more and more mostly because WTI settled above the $90 level back on Tuesday, but partially because it’s a nice round number that’s easy to yell in debates or hear about from your father-in-law on the golf course. While the prospect of sustained high energy prices could be harmful to the economy, its important to note that the current short supply environment is voluntary. The spigot could be turned back on at any point, which could topple oil prices in short order.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Gasoline And Crude Oil Futures Are All Trading Between .5% And .8% Lower To Start The Day
The energy complex is sagging this morning with the exception of the distillate benchmark as the prompt month trading higher by about a penny. Gasoline and crude oil futures are all trading between .5% and .8% lower to start the day, pulling back after WTI traded above $95 briefly in the overnight session.
There isn’t much in the way of news this morning with most still citing the expectation for tight global supply, inflation and interest rates, and production cuts by OPEC+.
As reported by the Department of Energy yesterday, refinery runs dropped in all PADDs, except for PADD 3, as we plug along into the fall turnaround season. Crude oil inventories drew down last week, despite lower runs and exports, and increased imports, likely due to the crude oil “adjustment” the EIA uses to reconcile any missing barrels from their calculated estimates.
Diesel remains tight in the US, particularly in PADD 5 (West Coast + Nevada, Arizona) but stockpiles are climbing back towards their 5-year seasonal range. It unsurprising to see a spike in ULSD imports to the region since both Los Angeles and San Francisco spot markets are trading at 50+ cent premiums to the NYMEX. We’ve yet to see such relief on the gasoline side of the barrel, and we likely won’t until the market switches to a higher RVP.