WTI And RBOB Futures Reach Highest Levels Since 2014

Market TalkTuesday, Jul 6 2021
Pivotal Week For Price Action

WTI and RBOB futures both reached their highest levels since 2014 overnight as a lack of unity from OPEC & Friends, an influx of investor money, and another renewable fuel court ruling, all seem to be helping push prices higher. Prices have pulled back since reaching those highs however, and there are some warning signals that a pullback may be coming soon.

OPEC & Friends failed for a third time to come up with an agreement on Monday as the UAE continues to act as a roadblock. While the market has reacted with higher prices following this news, it could in fact end up being bearish, as the fragile alliance was preventing too much supply hitting the market and without it, countries may overproduce to take advantage of prices trading at multi-year highs.

Tropical Storm Elsa is making its way across the Florida keys this morning, with winds around 60 miles an hour. The Storm is expected to pass near the port of Tampa overnight and make landfall sometime Wednesday. The path keeps the storm far away from any refineries or off shore production so should not a non-factor for supply.

Money managers continued their recent trend of increasing net length (bets on higher prices for refined products, but reducing them for Crude oil. RBOB gasoline contracts led the buying last week as the large speculative trader category increased their long positions by 10%, jumping on the high gasoline price bandwagon as prices reached 7 year highs.  

Baker Hughes reported 3 more oil rigs were put to work last week. That puts the total U.S. oil rig count up 191 from a year ago, when prices were fighting to get back to $40 per barrel. Then again, the rig count is 412 less than it was 2 years ago, when prices were around $56, nearly $20/barrel less than where they are trading today. 

RINs had another choppy session on Friday, starting the day under more selling pressure only to rally in the afternoon following a court ruling that invalidated E15 sales in the summer time. While E15 has had a hard time catching on outside of the Midwest, it does take another blending option off the table and reduce the availability of RINs to meet RFS obligations. Due to the early selling in RINs we saw Friday, the nickel move higher in values won’t show up until tonight’s assessment.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Market T 7.6.21

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Mar 28 2024

Energy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher Heading Into The Easter Weekend With Crude Oil Prices Leading The Way Up About $1.25/Barrel Early Thursday Morning

Energy markets are ticking modestly higher heading into the Easter Weekend with crude oil prices leading the way up about $1.25/barrel early Thursday morning, while gasoline prices are up around 2.5 cents and ULSD futures are about a penny.

Today is the last trading day for April HO and RBOB futures, an unusually early expiration due to the month ending on a holiday weekend. None of the pricing agencies will be active tomorrow since the NYMEX and ICE contracts are completely shut, so most rack prices published tonight will carry through Monday.

Gasoline inventories broke from tradition and snapped a 7 week decline as Gulf Coast supplies increased, more than offsetting the declines in PADDs 1, 2 and 5. With gulf coast refiners returning from maintenance and cranking out summer grade gasoline, the race is now officially on to move their excess through the rest of the country before the terminal and retail deadlines in the next two months. While PADD 3 run rates recover, PADD 2 is expected to see rates decline in the coming weeks with 2 Chicago-area refineries scheduled for planned maintenance, just a couple of weeks after BP returned from 7 weeks of unplanned repairs.

Although terminal supplies appear to be ample around the Baltimore area, we have seen linespace values for shipping gasoline on Colonial tick higher in the wake of the tragic bridge collapse as some traders seem to be making a small bet that the lack of supplemental barge resupply may keep inventories tight until the barge traffic can move once again. The only notable threat to refined product supplies is from ethanol barge traffic which will need to be replaced by truck and rail options, but so far that doesn’t seem to be impacting availability at the rack. Colonial did announce that they would delay the closure of its underutilized Baltimore north line segment that was scheduled for April 1 to May 1 out of an “abundance of caution”.

Ethanol inventories reached a 1-year high last week as output continues to hold above the seasonal range as ethanol distillers seem to be betting that expanded use of E15 blends will be enough to offset sluggish gasoline demand. A Bloomberg article this morning also highlights why soybeans are beginning to displace corn in the subsidized food to fuel race.

Flint Hills reported a Tuesday fire at its Corpus Christi West facility Wednesday, although it’s unclear if that event will have a material impact on output after an FCC unit was “stabilized” during the fire. While that facility isn’t connected to Colonial, and thus doesn’t tend to have an impact on USGC spot pricing, it is a key supplier to the San Antonio, Austin and DFW markets, so any downtime may be felt at those racks.

Meanwhile, P66 reported ongoing flaring at its Borger TX refinery due to an unknown cause. That facility narrowly avoided the worst wildfires in state history a few weeks ago but is one of the frequent fliers on the TCEQ program with upsets fairly common in recent years.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Mar 27 2024

Most Energy Contracts Are Ticking Lower For A 2nd Day After A Trickle Of Selling Picked Up Steam Tuesday

Most energy contracts are ticking lower for a 2nd day after a trickle of selling picked up steam Tuesday. ULSD futures are down a dime from Monday’s highs and RBOB futures are down 7 cents.

Diesel prices continue to look like the weak link in the energy chain, with futures coming within 1 point of their March lows overnight, setting up a test of the December lows around $2.48 if that resistance breaks down. Despite yesterday’s slide, RBOB futures still look bullish on the weekly charts, with a run towards the $3 mark still looking like a strong possibility in the next month or so.

The API reported crude stocks increased by more than 9 million barrels last week, while distillates were up 531,000 and gasoline stocks continued their seasonal decline falling by 4.4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.

RIN values have recovered to their highest levels in 2 months around $.59/RIN for D4 and D6 RINs, even though the recovery rally in corn and soybean prices that had helped lift prices off of the 4 year lows set in February has stalled out. Expectations for more biofuel production to be shut in due to weak economics with lower subsidy values seems to be encouraging the tick higher in recent weeks, although prices are still about $1/RIN lower than this time last year.

Reminder that Friday is one of only 3 annual holidays in which the Nymex is completely shut, so no prices will be published, but it’s not a federal holiday in the US so banks will be open.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.