After A Big Friday Rally And A Quiet Overnight Session, Energy Markets Pushing 2-3 Cent Gains In Refined Products

Market TalkMonday, Oct 16 2023
Pivotal Week For Price Action

After a big Friday rally, and a quiet overnight session, the buyers have stepped back into energy markets this morning, pushing 2-3 cent gains in refined products while oil prices are up about 50 cents/barrel. The fear of potential supply issues caused by escalation in the Middle East and the G7 sanctions on Russia continue to be cited as the driver of the big recovery rally after most energy contracts had their biggest weekly drops in 6-months to start October. 

We saw the expected bandwagon bail out by money managers in last Friday’s CFTC COT report, with speculative funds reducing their bets on higher energy prices by double digit percentages across the board during the big selling just before Hamas invaded Israel. Based on what we saw Friday, it’s likely we’ll see a large percentage of those funds jumping right back on as the supply fear trade took back control from the demand fear trade for the time being.

Baker Hughes reported a net increase of 4 oil rigs active in the US last week, snapping the streak of declines that’s pushed the rig count to a 19-month low. US producers set a new all-time record for oil output last week according to DOE estimates despite the fact that the rig count is down by more than 120 from last year’s peak, and down more than 1,000 from the levels we saw in 2015.

The DOE announced the winners in a nationwide RFP to develop hydrogen hubs, and is providing $7 billion to 7 different projects across the country. Naturally, the administration that set to make natural gas pipelines impossible to build just before Russia invaded Ukraine is now authorizing natural gas as the primary feedstock for more than half of these projects as the world continues to come to terms with the physical realities of transition to cleaner energy sources and the legislators’ need for cheap energy to stay in power.

A California judge ordered P66 to stop construction on its Rodeo renewables facility due to ironic environmental concerns.  It’s unclear whether or not the facility which is in the process of converting from a traditional refinery can continue making gasoline and diesel from crude oil while the court case proceeds. The lawsuit behind the order also targets the recently converted Marathon Martinez facility, although that plant is apparently still able to operate. 

Reuters published an interesting read Friday on why new Chinese refining capacity is poised to protect Europe from diesel shortages again this winter, while capitalizing on cheap Russian crude. 

A Dallas FED study shed further light on the change in exports from Russia since the Ukraine invasion, and the impact of sanctions by the G7.

The National Hurricane Center gives 70% odds of a new tropical storm forming in the Atlantic this week, but early forecast models suggest this storm will stay out to sea and not threaten the US. 

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Market Talk Update 10.16.2023

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkFriday, Dec 1 2023

“Buy The Rumor, Sell The News” Seems To Be The Trading Pattern Of The Week

“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” seems to be the trading pattern of the week as oil and refined products dropped sharply Thursday after OPEC & Friends announced another round of output cuts for the first quarter of next year. 

Part of the reason for the decline following that report is that it appears that the cartel wasn’t able to reach an official agreement on the plan for next year, prompting those that could volunteer their own production cuts without forcing restrictions on others. In addition, OPEC members not named Saudi Arabia are notorious for exceeding official quotas when they are able to, and Russia appears to be (surprise) playing games by announcing a cut that is made up of both crude oil and refined products, which are already restricted and thus allow an incremental increase of exports. 

Diesel futures are leading the way lower this morning, following a 13-cent drop from their morning highs Thursday, and came within 3-cents of a new 4-month low overnight. The prompt contract did leave a gap on the chart due to the backwardation between December and January contracts, which cut out another nickel from up front values.

Gasoline futures meanwhile are down 15-cents from yesterday’s pre-OPEC highs and are just 7-cents away from reaching a new 1-year low.  

Cash markets across most of the country are looking soft as they often do this time of year, with double digit discounts to futures becoming the rule across the Gulf Coast and Mid Continent. The West Coast is mixed with diesel prices seeing big discounts in San Francisco, despite multiple refinery upsets this week, while LA clings to small premiums. 

Ethanol prices continue to hold near multi-year lows this week as controversy over the fuel swirls. Corn growing states filed a motion this week trying to compel the courts to force the EPA to waive pollution laws to allow E15 blends. Meanwhile, the desire to grow even more corn to produce Jet Fuel is being hotly debated as the environmental impacts depend on which side of the food to fuel lobby you talk to.

The chaotic canal congestion in Panama is getting worse as authorities are continuing to reduce the daily number of ships transiting due to low water levels. Those delays are hitting many industries, energy included, and are now spilling over to one of the world’s other key shipping bottlenecks.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Nov 30 2023

No Official Word From OPEC Yet On Their Output Agreement For Next Year

Energy prices are pushing higher to start Thursday’s session after a big bounce Wednesday helped the complex maintain its upward momentum for the week.   

There’s no official word from OPEC yet on their output agreement for next year, but the rumor-mill is in high gear as always leading up to the official announcement, if one is actually made at all. A Reuters article this morning suggests that “sources” believe Saudi Arabia will continue leading the cartel with a voluntary output cut of around 1-million BPD to begin the year and given the recent drop in prices that seems like a logical move. 

We saw heavy selling in the immediate wake of the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, only to see prices reverse course sharply later in the day. ULSD was down more than 9-cents for a few minutes following the report but bounced more than 7-cents in the afternoon and is leading the push higher this morning so far.

It’s common to see demand drop sharply following a holiday, particularly for diesel as many commercial users simply shut down their operations for several days, but last week’s drop in implied diesel demand was one of the largest on record for the DOE’s estimates. That drop in demand, along with higher refinery runs, helped push diesel inventories higher in all markets, and the weekly days of supply estimate jumped from below the 5-year seasonal range around 25 days of supply to above the high end of the range at 37 days of supply based on last week’s estimated usage although it’s all but guaranteed we’ll see a correction higher in demand next week.

Gasoline demand also slumped, dropping to the low end of the seasonal range, and below year-ago levels for the first time in 5-weeks. You’d never guess that based on the bounce in gasoline prices that followed the DOE’s report however, with traders appearing to bet that the demand slump in a seasonal anomaly and tighter than average inventories may drive a counter-seasonal price rally.

Refinery runs increased across the country as plants returned to service following the busiest fall maintenance season in at least 4-years. While total refinery run rates are still below last year’s levels, they’re now above the 5-year average with more room to increase as no major upsets have been reported to keep a large amount of throughput offline.

The exception to the refinery run ramp up comes from PADD 4 which was the only region to see a decline last week after Suncor apparently had another inopportune upset at its beleaguered facility outside Denver. 

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends today, and it will go down as the 4th most active season on record, even though it certainly didn’t feel too severe given that the US dodged most of the storms.  

Today is also the expiration day for December 2023 ULSD and RBOB futures so look to the January contracts (RBF and HOF) for price direction if your market hasn’t already rolled.

More refineries ready to change hands next year?  With Citgo scheduled to be auctioned off, Irving Oil undergoing a strategic evaluation, and multiple new refineries possibly coming online, 2024 was already looking to be a turbulent year for refinery owners. Phillips 66 was indicating that it may sell off some of its refinery assets, but a new activist investor may upend those plans, along with the company’s directors.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action