Biggest One Day Sell Off Sparked

Market TalkFriday, Jun 12 2020
Late Rally Pushes Prices Into The Green

Energy and equity markets both proved they had out-kicked their coverage with their recovery rallies this week, as euphoria over reopening turned into fear about the future, and sparked the biggest one day sell off in six weeks. Both asset classes are seeing a healthy bounce this morning as cooler heads seem to be prevailing as they realize that not much has actually changed in the past 48 hours.

WTI dropped eight percent on Thursday, wiping out June’s gains in a single session. That sounds like a big deal, and in most years it would be, but less than two months after prices dropped 350 percent in a day, it just doesn’t feel that scary any more. While Thursday’s big drop did break the upward trend on the daily charts, the weekly and monthly charts are still hanging on to theirs, so it’s still too soon to say that the longer term recovery rally in energy prices is over.

Recovery or head-fake? Group 3 ULSD basis values are up a dime in June as demand recovers and inventories in the region draw down from all-time highs. USGC basis values are also strengthening across the forward curve as bottom pickers and storage players both seem to be bidding to not miss some of the best values they’ve seen in a decade, while others seem to be betting that refiners will be forced to cut diesel runs to deal with excess inventory and weak margins.

Today’s interesting read: Why a lack of sports may be driving small time gamblers into the stock market and impacting things like the Hertz bankruptcy. Maybe they should ask some of the retail investors long WTI in April how that worked out for them.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Nov 29 2023

The API Reported Gasoline Inventories Dropped By 898,000 Barrels Last Week

Gasoline and oil prices are attempting to rally for a 2nd straight day, a day ahead of the delayed OPEC meeting, while diesel prices are slipping back into the red following Tuesday’s strong showing. 

The API reported gasoline inventories dropped by 898,000 barrels last week, crude inventories declined by 817,000 barrels while distillates saw an increase of 2.8 million barrels. Those inventory stats help explain the early increases for RBOB and WTI while ULSD is trading lower. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning. 

A severe storm on the Black Sea is disrupting roughly 2% of the world’s daily oil output and is getting some credit for the bounce in futures, although early reports suggest that this will be a short-lived event. 

Chevron reported that its Richmond CA refinery was back online after a power outage Monday night. San Francisco spot diesel basis values rallied more than a dime Tuesday after a big drop on Monday following the news of that refinery being knocked offline.

Just a few days after Scotland’s only refinery announced it would close in 2025, Exxon touted its newest refinery expansion project in the UK Tuesday, with a video detailing how it was ramping up diesel production to reduce imports and possibly allow for SAF production down the road at its Fawley facility. 

Ethanol prices continue to slump this week, reaching a 2-year low despite the bounce in gasoline prices as corn values dropped to a 3-year low, and the White House appears to be delaying efforts to shift to E15 in an election year. 

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkTuesday, Nov 28 2023

Values For Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Drop This Week

The petroleum complex continues to search for a price floor with relatively quiet price action this week suggesting some traders are going to wait and see what OPEC and Friends can decide on at their meeting Thursday. 

Values for space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to drop this week, with trades below 10 cents/gallon after reaching a high north of 18-cents earlier in the month. Softer gasoline prices in New York seems to be driving the slide as the 2 regional refiners who had been down for extended maintenance both return to service. Diesel linespace values continue to hold north of 17-cents/gallon as East Coast stocks are holding at the low end of their seasonal range while Gulf Coast inventories are holding at average levels.

Reversal coming?  Yesterday we saw basis values for San Francisco spot diesel plummet to the lowest levels of the year, but then overnight the Chevron refinery in Richmond was forced to shut several units due to a power outage which could cause those differentials to quickly find a bid if the supplier is forced to become a buyer to replace that output.

Money managers continued to reduce the net length held in crude oil contracts, with both Brent and WTI seeing long liquidation and new short positions added last week. Perhaps most notable from the weekly COT report data is that funds are continuing their counter-seasonal bets on higher gasoline prices. The net length held by large speculators for RBOB is now at its highest level since Labor Day, at a time of year when prices tend to drop due to seasonal demand weakness. 

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.