Brewing Storms, Both Literal And Figurative Are Stirring Up Energy Markets For A 4th Straight Day
Brewing storms, both literal and figurative are stirring up energy markets for a 4th straight day, sending refined products and WTI to yet another round of 7 year highs this morning.
A powerful winter storm is heading for the east coast, and the “Bomb Cyclone” warnings have sparked a round of panic buying that we haven’t witness since the dreaded Polar Vortex of 2014, which was (coincidentally?) the last time fuel prices were this high. Why gasoline prices are joining the run up this morning when so millions of cars will be unable to drive for days is always a bit of a mystery, but once the snowball effect of buying in energy markets gets rolling, all bets are off.
Speaking of which, the February Heating Oil contract – which expires Monday – is breaking free from the pack of surging energy prices, trading 9 cents higher than the March contract this morning north of $2.86, a gain of 26 cents since last Friday. With less than 2 days until expiration, don’t be surprised to see some even more volatile swings in that contract, and a spike to $3 in the next two sessions is a real possibility.
Meanwhile, the figurative storm brewing around the Ukraine continues, with more signs of escalation keeping markets on edge. The US is working with energy producers to come up with backup plans to supply Europe with supplemental fuel should Russia continue to use its Natural Gas and Oil exports as its most powerful weapon in this war.
Help is on the way? A big story over the past several months was the expectation that OPEC and other producers would regain the upper hand and global oil supplies would begin building again after an 18 month decline. So far that hasn’t proved true as various disruptions and supply chain bottlenecks have limited output. The EIA this morning published a note doubling down on the theory that OPEC’s production will have its largest increase in nearly 20 years despite the headwinds in Libya and elsewhere, which may eventually help prices to collapse back to more comfortable levels. The big question in the meantime is how high will they spike until the supply reinforcements arrive later in the year.
While the world anxiously awaits a solution to the lack of adequate petroleum supplies in 2022, the even slower supply race for a lower carbon energy solution continues with plenty of new ideas hitting the market daily, but little if anything that will change the outlook soon. Yesterday we saw word from Valero that Sustainable Aviation Fuels were still not economically viable, particularly given the competition for renewable feedstocks, and a report that Marathon was considering buying the idled P66 refinery in LA to convert it to renewable production, which will continue to add pressure on the feedstock market if it actually happens.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Energy Markets Rally Again Thursday After A Choppy Wednesday Session
Energy markets are trying to rally again Thursday after a choppy Wednesday session. RBOB gasoline futures are leading the push higher, on pace for a 3rd consecutive day of gains after finding a temporary floor Tuesday and have added 12 cents from those lows.
Equity markets are pointing sharply lower after a weak Q1 GDP estimate which seems to have contributed to a pullback in product prices over the past few minutes, but don’t be surprised if the “bad news is good news” low interest rate junkies start jumping in later on.
The DOE’s weekly report showed sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, but inventory levels in most markets continue to follow their typical seasonal trends. Refinery runs held fairly steady last week with crude inputs down slightly but total gross throughputs up slightly as most facilities are now back online from a busy spring maintenance season and geared up for peak demand this summer.
Propane and propylene exports spiked to a record high north of 2.3 million barrels/day last week, which demonstrates both the US’s growing influence on global product markets, and the steady shift towards “other” products besides traditional gasoline and diesel in the level of importance for refiners.
The EIA acknowledged this morning that its weak diesel consumption estimates reflected the switch to Renewable Diesel on the West Coast, although they did not provide any timeline for when that data will be included in the weekly survey. The agency acknowledged that more than 4% of the total US consumption is now a combination of RD and Biodiesel, and that number is expected to continue to grow this year. This morning’s note also suggested that weak manufacturing activity was to blame for the sluggish diesel demand across the US, while other reports suggest the freight recession continued through Q1 of this year, which is also contributing to the big shift from tight diesel markets to oversupplied in several regions.
Valero kicked off the Q1 earnings releases for refiners with solid net income of $1.2 billion that’s a far cry from the spectacular earnings north of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The refining sector made $1.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion last year. That is a pattern that should be expected from other refiners as well as the industry returns to a more normal market after 2 unbelievable years. You wouldn’t guess it by looking at stock prices for refiners though, as they continue to trade near record highs despite the more modest earnings.
Another pattern we’re likely to see continue with other refiners is that Renewable earnings were down, despite a big increase in production as lower subsidies like RINs and LCFS credit values sting producers that rely on those to compete with traditional products. Valero’s SAF conversion project at its Diamond Green joint venture is progressing ahead of schedule and will give the company optionality to flip between RD and SAF depending on how the economics of those two products shakes out this year. Valero also shows part of why refiners continue to disappear in California, with operating expenses for its West Coast segment nearly 2X that of the other regions it operates in.
Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk