Bulls Aren’t Giving Up Control Of This Market Just Yet
We saw a big pullback in energy prices over the past 24 hours, but a 5 cent bounce from overnight lows suggests the bulls aren’t giving up control of this market just yet.
Wednesday’s trading created an outside down pattern on the daily charts after setting a new 7 year high overnight, only to end the day with a lower low than the previous session. That type of bar is known to be a classic reversal pattern that sets up more selling at the end of a rally, and that’s exactly what we got overnight with products dropping another 5-6 cents from the settlement, which marks a decline of 12-15 cents from the highs set just 24 hours earlier.
Now the fun begins as prices have bounced nearly 6 cents off of trend line support based on the huge rally over the past 3 weeks, suggesting this selloff was more profit taking after the market was severely overbought, and not a reversal in trend. As long as we see products hold above those overnight lows ($2.25 for RBOB and $2.35 for ULSD) there’s an argument to be made that the upward trend is still alive and should favor higher prices in the weeks to come. IF that trend breaks, expect another 10 cents of downside in short order.
For what it’s worth, the big physical traders don’t appear to be buying the big run-up in futures, with basis values for gasoline in particular and diesel to a lesser degree sliding this week. Speaking of which, it’s been a bad week for spills, with a tank leak at the 2nd largest refinery in the country making for some eye popping videos, but the market shrugged it off as the oil is contained in the berm system designed for just this type of event and operations at the refinery don’t seem to be impacted. Similarly, LA-area refiners don’t appear to be facing shortfalls from the pipeline leak that’s been headline news for the past several days as prices in the market haven’t flinched. Meanwhile, Kinder Morgan’s refined products pipeline FKA Plantation remains closed until the weekend due to a spill in Alabama. Originally that line was scheduled to come back online Wednesday, but restart has been delayed until the weekend as it appears a cause of the spill is still under investigation. Allocations at terminals along the line have tightened up, and some outages are occurring, but so far the impact is relatively contained.
The EIA published its annual world energy outlook Wednesday. The highlight (or lowlight depending on your perspective) of the report was that despite the bandwagon effect of net-zero by 2050 claims, production of oil, nat gas, and even coal, is expected to continue growing for the next 30 years as emerging markets – primarily in Asia - continue to drive demand. That report is a harsh reality check for those aiming to end fossil fuel usage.
Not much exciting from yesterday’s DOE status report. Total US refinery runs did surpass 2019 levels for this time of the year, marking the first week since the start of COVID we’ve seen that. Run rates were up in 4 out of 5 PADDs for a 2nd week, as plants seem to be returning from fall maintenance and taking advantage of the unplanned downtime at 2 gulf coast plants since Ida knocked them offline.
The tropics remain quiet, with no expected storms to be named over the next 5 days according to the NHC.
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Energy Markets Are Pointing Modestly Higher To Start Friday’s Session
Energy markets are pointing modestly higher to start Friday’s session, in a meager attempt at a recovery rally at the end of what would be the worst week in over two months if prices settle near current values. The liquidation of speculative bets placed on higher energy prices ahead of the direct conflict between Israel and Iran continues to appear to be the driver of the weakness, and we’ll have to wait and see if this modest bounce is a sign that the liquidation is over, or just a pause before it picks up again. Most contracts remain in a precarious technical position with the potential for a slide towards $70 for WTI and $2.20 for both refined products if the buyers don’t get serious soon.
Stocks are pointing sharply higher after a slowdown in job growth reported in the April Non-Farm payroll report. The BLS reported an increase of 175,000 jobs for the month, down sharply from the 315,000 jobs added in March, and the February & March estimates were revised down a combined 22,000. Both the “official” (U-3) and “real” (U-6) unemployment rates ticked up by .1% to 3.9% and 7.4% respectively. The immediate positive reaction to negative news suggest that the bad news is good news low-interest-rate junkies believe this may help the FED’s dilemma of the US economy being too strong to cut rates. The big jump in equities has not seemed to spill over into energy contracts yet, as crude and refined product contracts changed very little following the report.
San Francisco diesel basis spiked 15 cents Thursday to reach the highest level of any market in the country so far this year at 35 cents over prompt futures. While there aren’t yet any refinery upsets reported to blame the spike on, PBF is undergoing planned maintenance at its Martinez facility, and of course P66 just finished converting its Rodeo plant to RD after Marathon converted its Martinez facility in the past couple of years, meaning there are at most only 2 out of the previous 5 refineries in the region operating near capacity these days. The question now is how quickly barrels can shift north from Southern California which continues to show signs of a supply glut with weak basis values and spot to rack spreads.
PBF continued the trend of Q1 refinery earnings that were sharply lower, but still healthy by longer-term historical standards. The company noted that its Saint Bernard (the parish, not the dog) Renewables facility co-processing at its Chalmette refinery had received provisional approval from CARB to lower its CI scores and help improve the amount of LCFS subsidies it can receive. That facility is operating at 18mb/day which is roughly 86% of its capacity.
Cenovus highlighted the restart of its Toledo and Superior refineries in improved refinery run rates in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 and noted that it had ramped up production at units that were slowed down for economic reasons in December and January (you may remember this as the time when midcontinent basis values were trading 50 cents/gallon below futures). The company did note that the January deep freeze slowed operations at Superior, but did not mention any change in operating rates despite numerous upsets at its 50% owned Borger refinery.
Dress rehearsal for a busy hurricane season? So far there are no reports of refinery issues caused by the flooding in the Houston area this week. At this point, most of the flooding appears to be far to the north of the refining hubs on the Gulf Coast but with more storms in the forecast and 88 counties already declaring disaster status, this will be something to watch for the next few days.
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Crude Oil Inventories Climbed Above Year-Ago Levels For The First Time In 2024
Sell by May then go away.
The old trading adage looked good for energy markets in 2024 as the new month started off with the biggest daily sell-off of the year so far. WTI and ULSD contracts are now in “rally or else” mode on the charts with sharply lower prices a strong possibility now that technical support layers have broken down. RBOB doesn’t look quite as bearish on the charts, but seasonal factors will now act as a headwind as we’re well into the spring peaking window for gasoline prices, and we’ve already seen a 27 cent drop from the highs. If RBOB can hold above $2.50 there’s a chance to avoid a larger selloff, but if not, a run towards $2.20 for both gasoline and diesel looks likely in the months ahead.
The selling picked up steam following the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, even though the inventory changes were fairly small. Crude oil inventories continue their steady build and climbed above year-ago levels for the first time in 2024. Demand for refined products remains sluggish, even after accounting for the RD consumption that’s still not in the weekly reports, and most PADDs are following a typical seasonal inventory trend. The Gulf Coast saw a healthy build in diesel inventories last week as the export market slowed for a 3rd straight week. Refinery runs dipped modestly last week following a handful of upsets across the country, but overall rates remain near normal levels for this time of year.
The Transmountain pipeline expansion began operations yesterday, completing a 12-year saga that has the potential to materially change refining economics for plants in the US that relied heavily on discounted Canadian crude to turn profits over the past decade.
The P66 Borger refinery reported another operational upset Monday that lasted a full 24 hours impacting a sulfur recovery unit. Last week the company highlighted how the plant’s fire department helped the surrounding area when the largest wildfire in state history came within feet of the facility.
The EPA approved a new model to determine life cycle carbon intensity scores this week, which cracks open the door for things like ethanol to SAF, which were previously deemed to not reduce emissions enough to qualify for government subsidies. The new model would require improved farming techniques like no-till, cover crop planting and using higher efficiency nitrogen fertilizer to limit the damage done by farms that no longer rotate crops due to the ethanol mandates. Whether or not the theoretical ability to produce SAF comes to fruition in the coming years thanks to the increased tax credit potential will be a key pivot point for some markets that find themselves with too much RD today, but could see those supplies transition to aviation demand.
The FED continues to throw cold water on anyone hoping for a near term cut in interest rates. The FOMC held rates steady as expected Wednesday, but also highlighted the struggles with stubbornly high inflation. The CME’s Fedwatch tool gave 58% odds of at least one rate cut by September before the announcement, and those odds have slipped modestly to 54% this morning.