Early Stages Of Major Commodity Rally
The rally marches on for energy prices, with Brent crude reaching the $60 mark overnight, and refined products hitting fresh, one-year highs. Most contracts are now trading 70% higher than the low trades from November first, with a well-defined bullish trend line serving as a buying point during any number of attempted sell-offs. A Bloomberg article argues that we’re in the early stages of a major commodity rally as the vaccines start to unleash pent up demand around the world.
While the path upward is still clear, there’s not much more room to go until refined products face a major test at last February’s highs. If they can break that resistance, there’s a case to be made for a run towards $2, but if they fail, we could see some harsh selling as the complex is looking severely overbought and there are signs that the big funds may be jumping off the gasoline bandwagon.
Large speculators remain bullish on oil and diesel prices, but seem to think the gasoline price rally has outkicked its coverage based on last week’s Commitments of Traders report. Net length held by money managers (the large speculative category in the report) grew in WTI, Brent, ULSD and Gasoil contracts, but was cut by 22% in RBOB contracts on the week. It appears that some of those sellers may have been head-faked by the selloff to end January as prices continued to move higher after the report’s data was collected last Tuesday. That said, in years past, when the big funds decide the seasonal rally is over, they typically liquidate gasoline positions heavily over a period of a few weeks, which could end up being a factor that finally brings the three month long rally to an end.
Baker Hughes reported a net increase of four oil rigs operating in the U.S. last week, with the Permian basin up by six rigs, while other locations declined by two. That’s the eleventh consecutive week of increases in the U.S. oil rig count, with the Permian adding 43 of the total 68 rigs during that stretch. It’s also worth noting that in the summer of 2019, oil prices traded lower than they are today, and there were 400 more drilling rigs active than there are today, so there’s still plenty of room for activity, although most producers remain cautious given the weak demand environment.
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Energy Prices Fluctuate: Chinese Imports Surge, Saudi Arabia Cuts Output and Buys Golf
Energy prices continue their back-and-forth trading, starting Wednesday’s session with modest gains, after a round of selling Tuesday wiped out the Saudi output cut bounce.
A surge in China’s imports of crude oil and natural gas seem to be the catalyst for the early move higher, even though weak export activity from the world’s largest fuel buyer suggests the global economy is still struggling.
New tactic? Saudi Arabia’s plan to voluntarily cut oil production by another 1 million barrels/day failed to sustain a rally in oil prices to start the week, so they bought the PGA tour.
The EIA’s monthly Short Term Energy Outlook raised its price forecast for oil, citing the Saudi cuts, and OPEC’s commitment to extend current production restrictions through 2024. The increase in prices comes despite reducing the forecast for US fuel consumption, as GDP growth projections continue to decline from previous estimates.
The report included a special article on diesel consumption, and its changing relationship with economic activity that does a good job of explaining why diesel prices are $2/gallon cheaper today than they were a year ago.
The API reported healthy builds in refined product inventories last week, with distillates up 4.5 million barrels while gasoline stocks were up 2.4 million barrels in the wake of Memorial Day. Crude inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels on the week. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
We’re still waiting on the EPA’s final ruling on the Renewable Fuel Standard for the next few years, which is due a week from today, but another Reuters article suggests that eRINs will not be included in this round of making up the rules.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Week 23 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Prices Retreat, Global Demand Concerns Loom
So much for that rally. Energy prices have given back all of the gains made following Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it would voluntarily withhold another 1 million barrels/day of oil production starting in July. The pullback appears to be rooted in the ongoing concerns over global demand after a soft PMI report for May while markets start to focus on what the FED will do at its FOMC meeting next week.
The lack of follow through to the upside leaves petroleum futures stuck in neutral technical territory, and since the top end of the recent trading range didn’t break, it seems likely we could see another test of the lower end of the range in the near future.
RIN prices have dropped sharply in the past few sessions, with traders apparently not waiting on the EPA’s final RFS ruling – due in a week – to liquidate positions. D6 values dropped to their lowest levels in a year Monday, while D4 values hit a 15-month low. In unrelated news, the DOE’s attempt to turn seaweed into biofuels has run into a whale problem.
Valero reported a process leak at its Three Rivers TX refinery that lasted a fully 24 hours. That’s the latest in a string of upsets for south Texas refineries over the past month that have kept supplies from San Antonio, Austin and DFW tighter than normal. Citgo Corpus Christi also reported an upset over the weekend at a sulfur recovery unit. Several Corpus facilities have been reporting issues since widespread power outages knocked all of the local plants offline last month.
Meanwhile, the Marathon Galveston Bay (FKA Texas City) refinery had another issue over the weekend as an oil movement line was found to be leaking underground but does not appear to have impacted refining operations at the facility. Gulf Coast traders don’t seem concerned by any of the latest refinery issues, with basis values holding steady to start the week.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.