Economic Shutdown Aims At New Part Of Oil Barrel

Market TalkTuesday, Apr 28 2020
Output Cut Plan Announced

It’s a mixed bag for energy prices to start Tuesday’s trading as the economic shutdown takes aim at a new part of the oil barrel this week. What was a crude oil demand story in February, became a gasoline story in March, only to become a crude and diesel story in the back half of April.

Exports (or rather a lack of) seem to be the new cloud hanging over diesel prices, as U.S. refiners that became diesel suppliers to the world now struggle to find a home for those barrels. The Pemex force majeure debate continues to weigh heavily on futures and cash prices, with some U.S. spot markets dropping to 50 cents/gallon for ULSD, while futures reached a new 18-year low overnight.

Gasoline futures and cash markets are faring much better this week, as it appears driving demand may have reached a bottom, and refinery cut backs are starting to balance the supply/demand equation.

Another consequence of the May WTI shockwave: Liquidity in May refined products contracts, which expire Thursday, is already drying up with June seeing nearly 10x the May contract volume already this morning. Usually that disparity in volume is reserved for the last day or of the month, but may become the norm as traders are apparently afraid of becoming the next one stuck to sell a negative number.

Speaking of expiring contracts, more index funds are announcing that they’ll be moving positions further out along the forward curve, just as the U.S. oil fund was faced to do in order to avoid extinction. The announcement by S&P Global is getting early credit for the big drop in June WTI this morning.

The Dallas FED’s Manufacturing Survey gave another data point on how quickly things went from bad to worse, with several readings far exceeding the previous record low readings set in 2008. The survey did include supplemental questions to businesses that had applied for new SBA programs, with over half of those respondents suggesting their business would return to normal levels in six months or less once restrictions are lifted.

Not a good time for a reminder: The EIA this morning published a note highlighting U.S. energy production for 2019 exceeds domestic consumption for the first time in over 60 years. Unfortunately, this fact has become painfully clear for any producers in 2020, and isn’t a point to celebrate as it was just a few months ago. Petroleum continues to be the largest source of energy, while natural gas is the fastest growing, rapidly replacing coal in the energy stream.

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Market TalkFriday, Apr 19 2024

Gasoline Futures Are Leading The Way Lower This Morning

It was a volatile night for markets around the world as Israel reportedly launched a direct strike against Iran. Many global markets, from equities to currencies to commodities saw big swings as traders initially braced for the worst, then reversed course rapidly once Iran indicated that it was not planning to retaliate. Refined products spiked following the initial reports, with ULSD futures up 11 cents and RBOB up 7 at their highest, only to reverse to losses this morning. Equities saw similar moves in reverse overnight as a flight to safety trade soon gave way to a sigh of relief recovery.

Gasoline futures are leading the way lower this morning, adding to the argument that we may have seen the spring peak in prices a week ago, unless some actual disruption pops up in the coming weeks. The longer term up-trend is still intact and sets a near-term target to the downside roughly 9 cents below current values. ULSD meanwhile is just a nickel away from setting new lows for the year, which would open up a technical trap door for prices to slide another 30 cents as we move towards summer.

A Reuters report this morning suggests that the EPA is ready to announce another temporary waiver of smog-prevention rules that will allow E15 sales this summer as political winds continue to prove stronger than any legitimate environmental agenda. RIN prices had stabilized around 45 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 credits this week and are already trading a penny lower following this report.

Delek’s Big Spring refinery reported maintenance on an FCC unit that would require 3 days of work. That facility, along with several others across TX, have had numerous issues ever since the deep freeze events in 2021 and 2024 did widespread damage. Meanwhile, overnight storms across the Midwest caused at least one terminal to be knocked offline in the St. Louis area, but so far no refinery upsets have been reported.

Meanwhile, in Russia: Refiners are apparently installing anti-drone nets to protect their facilities since apparently their sling shots stopped working.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Apr 18 2024

The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days

The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.

The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.

An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.

Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.

In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.

The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.

Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.

Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.

PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.

Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action