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Energy And Equity Prices Are Trying To Find A Floor This Morning After The Worst Daily Selloff In 2 Years

Tuesday, May 10 2022
Market Talk

Energy and equity prices are trying to find a floor this morning after the worst daily selloff in 2 years for several contracts pushed US equity markets to their lowest levels since March of 2021.  While stock markets are looking weak technically, and it seems like fear is taking over the market for the time being, refined products are still a ways away from threatening their bull trends and we’ll need to see another 20-25 cents knocked off of prices before even thinking about calling an end to the 2022 rally.

In addition to the general economic fears that are putting downward pressure on stocks and commodities, the European “Union” has been unable to agree on a Russian oil embargo which leaves the door cracked for exports to continue flowing – through Ukraine no less – despite the war. If the EU can figure out a way to convince Hungary to get out of the way however, expect another price spike near term.

Diesel prices on the East Coast continue to be the standout, even as gasoline prices hit record highs in the past week. Despite most of the country seeing heavy pullbacks over the past week, NYH ULSD prices continue to hold near $5/gallon, with a prompt trade of $1.25 over June futures in Monday’s session. For anyone with the capacity to run from Chicago or Gulf Coast based markets, there’s huge money to be made this week in long hauling diesel into the NYH region. 

While the forward curve charts for distillates show expectations for dramatic easing in the coming months, a Rystad energy report suggests that the worst of the EU energy supply crisis may come this winter, which could continue the pattern we’ve seen recently where seemingly any spare barrel of diesel heads across the pond.  

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

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