Energy Futures Were Slumping To Start Friday’s Session
Energy futures were slumping to start Friday’s session in spite of an expected production cut from OPEC and a strong jobs report.
The OPEC meetings this week continue to create more questions than answers. Yesterday, the cartel-only meeting was held, but there was no formal press release or press conference to announce their plans. There are reports that the group agreed to additional output cuts of around 500,000 barrels/day, but are keeping the news quiet until the cuts are confirmed with the larger OPEC & friends (which mainly means Russia) today.
Not what they were hoping for: The weakness is crude prices in spite of the suggestion of additional cuts seems to be due to Saudi Arabia already pumping below their quota, meaning this additional cut may not actually take new oil out of the market. In addition, there are suggestions that Russia will be granted exemptions on condensate, which will also effectively increase supplies without technically violating a quota.
Strong Jobs report: November non-farm payrolls rose by 266,000, and both September and October reports were revised higher, making this the strongest report since January. The market reaction to the news was notable as stock futures jumped but energy futures sold off immediately after it came out. That divergence may have more to do with OPEC uncertainty than anything else, but is will need to be watched in case the asset classes are going their own way.
Unintended consequence of record oil production: The EIA this morning noted the increase in flared (burned off) natural gas in the past year as US Oil production continued to grow to new all-time highs this year. With environmental issues continuing to become a larger issue globally, expect this side-effect to put pressure on producers in the coming years.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Latest Posts
Week 48 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The API Reported Gasoline Inventories Dropped By 898,000 Barrels Last Week
Values For Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Drop This Week
After Another Black Friday Selloff Pushed Energy Futures Sharply Lower In Last Week’s Holiday-Shortened Trading
Social Media
News & Views
View All
Week 48 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The API Reported Gasoline Inventories Dropped By 898,000 Barrels Last Week
Gasoline and oil prices are attempting to rally for a 2nd straight day, a day ahead of the delayed OPEC meeting, while diesel prices are slipping back into the red following Tuesday’s strong showing.
The API reported gasoline inventories dropped by 898,000 barrels last week, crude inventories declined by 817,000 barrels while distillates saw an increase of 2.8 million barrels. Those inventory stats help explain the early increases for RBOB and WTI while ULSD is trading lower. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
A severe storm on the Black Sea is disrupting roughly 2% of the world’s daily oil output and is getting some credit for the bounce in futures, although early reports suggest that this will be a short-lived event.
Chevron reported that its Richmond CA refinery was back online after a power outage Monday night. San Francisco spot diesel basis values rallied more than a dime Tuesday after a big drop on Monday following the news of that refinery being knocked offline.
Just a few days after Scotland’s only refinery announced it would close in 2025, Exxon touted its newest refinery expansion project in the UK Tuesday, with a video detailing how it was ramping up diesel production to reduce imports and possibly allow for SAF production down the road at its Fawley facility.
Ethanol prices continue to slump this week, reaching a 2-year low despite the bounce in gasoline prices as corn values dropped to a 3-year low, and the White House appears to be delaying efforts to shift to E15 in an election year.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Values For Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Drop This Week
The petroleum complex continues to search for a price floor with relatively quiet price action this week suggesting some traders are going to wait and see what OPEC and Friends can decide on at their meeting Thursday.
Values for space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to drop this week, with trades below 10 cents/gallon after reaching a high north of 18-cents earlier in the month. Softer gasoline prices in New York seems to be driving the slide as the 2 regional refiners who had been down for extended maintenance both return to service. Diesel linespace values continue to hold north of 17-cents/gallon as East Coast stocks are holding at the low end of their seasonal range while Gulf Coast inventories are holding at average levels.
Reversal coming? Yesterday we saw basis values for San Francisco spot diesel plummet to the lowest levels of the year, but then overnight the Chevron refinery in Richmond was forced to shut several units due to a power outage which could cause those differentials to quickly find a bid if the supplier is forced to become a buyer to replace that output.
Money managers continued to reduce the net length held in crude oil contracts, with both Brent and WTI seeing long liquidation and new short positions added last week. Perhaps most notable from the weekly COT report data is that funds are continuing their counter-seasonal bets on higher gasoline prices. The net length held by large speculators for RBOB is now at its highest level since Labor Day, at a time of year when prices tend to drop due to seasonal demand weakness.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.