Energy Prices Rally After Reported Deal

Market TalkWednesday, Jun 3 2020
Week 21 - US DOE Inventory Recap

Reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a deal on more oil production cuts helped energy prices rally to multi-month highs overnight, most notably Brent crude was trading north of the $40 mark. Pesky details that the deal was contingent upon other OPEC members actually complying with the current agreement seemed to throw cold water on that rally and prices started heading lower around 5 a.m. Despite the pullback, charts continue to point higher so as long as the week’s lows aren’t taken out by this round of selling.

The API reported a small draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week that seemed to help with the early overnight rally. Refined product inventories continued to build however, with gasoline stocks up 1.7 million barrels and distillates up more than 5.9 million. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time today. Unaccounted for crude oil remains a huge number to watch, as are crude oil imports while the armada of Saudi oil tankers has been offloading, which has helped push total U.S. inventories higher even as Cushing stocks have seen a dramatic draw-down. The growing glut of distillates continues to be a major red flag challenging the premise of the recovery rally for both energy and equity markets.

Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Tuesday, and is currently forecast to hit Louisiana by Monday at Tropical Storm strength. There’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and although this is normally too early in the year for major hurricane development, the Gulf of Mexico waters are already warmer than normal, which could help this storm grow. The current path would avoid a direct hit on any of the refinery clusters along the USGC, but essentially all of the coastal refineries are in the cone of uncertainty so it’s too soon to write if off completely. The path will also take the storm through the heart of US offshore oil production, but with those operations already cut back due to the price collapse, this may have less impact on oil prices than it would in a normal year.

Another unintended consequence of the COVID-19 fallout: If there are any supply disruptions during hurricane season, the impacts may be less noticeable as the extra supply of oil and refined products will act as a buffer to the system. In fact, with Gulf Coast refiners reliant on exports to balance the supply/demand equation, if production stays online but ship traffic is delayed, we could see downward pressure on prices.

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Market TalkThursday, Mar 30 2023

Refined Products Are Moving Lower For A 2nd Day After Coming Under Heavy Selling Pressure In Wednesday’s Session

Refined products are moving lower for a 2nd day after coming under heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s session. Rapidly increasing refinery runs and sluggish diesel demand both seemed to weigh heavily on product prices, while crude oil is still benefitting from the disruption of exports from Iraq. Prices remain range-bound, so expect more choppy back and forth action in the weeks ahead.

US oil inventories saw a large decline last week, despite another 13-million barrels of oil being found in the weekly adjustment figure, as imports dropped to a 2-year low, and refinery runs cranked up in most regions as many facilities return from spring maintenance.

The refining utilization percentage jumped to its highest level of the year but remains overstated since the new 250,000 barrels/day of output from Exxon’s Beaumont facility still isn’t being counted in the official capacity figures. If you’re shocked that the government report could have such a glaring omission, then you haven’t been paying attention to the Crude Adjustment figure this year, and the artificially inflated petroleum demand estimates that have come with it.

Speaking of which, we’re now just a couple of months away from WTI Midland crude oil being included in the Dated Brent index, and given the uncertainty in the US over what should be classified as oil vs condensate, expect some confusion once those barrels start being included in the international benchmark as well.  

Diesel demand continues to hover near the lowest levels we’ve seen for the first quarter in the past 20+ years, dropping sharply again last week after 2 straight weeks of increases had some markets hoping that the worst was behind us. Now that we’re moving out of the heating season, we’ll soon get more clarity on how on road and industrial demand is holding up on its own in the weekly figures that have been heavily influenced by the winter that wasn’t across large parts of the country.

Speaking of which, the EIA offered another mea culpa of sorts Wednesday by comparing its October Winter Fuels outlook to the current reality, which shows a huge reduction in heating demand vs expectations just 6-months ago.  

It’s not just domestic consumption of diesel that’s under pressure, exports have fallen below their 5-year average as buyers in South America are buying more Russian barrels, and European nations are getting more from new facilities in the Middle East.

Take a look at the spike in PADD 5 gasoline imports last week to get a feel for how the region may soon be forced to adjust to rapidly increasing refining capacity in Asia, while domestic facilities come under pressure

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Mar 29 2023

Crude Oil Prices Are Trying To Lead Another Rally In Energy Futures This Morning

Crude oil prices are trying to lead another rally in energy futures this morning, while ULSD prices are resisting the pull higher. Stocks are pointed higher in the early going as no news is seen as good news in the banking crisis.

WTI prices have rallied by $10/barrel in the past 7 trading days, even with a $5 pullback last Thursday and Friday. The recovery puts WTI back in the top half of its March trading range but there’s still another $7 to go before the highs of the month are threatened. 

Yesterday’s API report seems to be aiding the continued strength in crude, with a 6 million barrel inventory decline estimated by the industry group last week. That report also showed a decline of 5.9 million barrels of gasoline which is consistent with the spring pattern of drawdowns as we move through the RVP transition, while distillates saw a build of 550k barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning. 

Diesel prices seems to be reacting both to the small build in inventories – which is yet another data point of the weak demand so far this year for distillates – and on the back of crumbling natural gas prices that settled at their lowest levels in 2.5 years yesterday and fell below $2/million BTU this morning. 

While diesel futures are soft, rack markets across the Southwestern US remain unusually tight, with spreads vs spot markets approaching $1/gallon in several cases as local refiners go through maintenance and pipeline capacity for resupply remains limited. The tightest supply in the region however remains the Phoenix CBG boutique gasoline grade which is going for $1.20/gallon over spots as several of the few refineries that can make that product are having to perform maintenance at the same time. 

French refinery strikes continue for a 4th week and are estimated to be keeping close to 1 million barrels/day of fuel production offline, which is roughly 90% of French capacity and almost 1% of total global capacity. That disruption is having numerous ripple effects on crude oil markets in the Atlantic basin, while the impact on refined product supplies and prices remains much more contained than it was when this happened just 5 months ago.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action