Fear Seems To Be Creeping Back Into Both Energy And Equity Markets
Fear seems to be creeping back into both energy and equity markets leading to a broad selloff to start the last day of the last “normal” trading week of the year. From here on out volumes and liquidity tend to get sketchy which can create both extremely boring trade, and some very volatile trade depending on how the computer programs manage the lack of human interaction.
Take your pick of fear headlines driving the move lower this morning. Omicron is proving to be spreading faster and vaccine resistant forcing more lockdowns, and more delays of return to work plans. Fear of hawkish central bank policy on inflation. Tech stocks getting hammered. Santa’s elves are struggling with supply chain bottlenecks. Whatever cause you choose, there’s no mistaking that both RBOB and ULSD prices rallied right into their weekly trend-lines and then pulled back sharply in the past 24 hours, which makes the bear market look very much intact, and setting up another test of the $2 mark in the weeks to come.
On the other hand, if you’re bullish on refined product prices heading into the winter, then you might point out that despite the pullback, prices this week did set a higher high and higher low than he past two weeks, and that trend lines are overrated indicators, so there’s really no reason for a big selloff soon, especially with the potential for a Santa Claus rally in stocks coming next week. If you’re in this camp, the vampire squid known as Goldman Sachs agrees with you as they’re making a case that $100 oil is still possible next year.
Speaking of conflicting opinions on market direction: RINs are having a really hard time making up their mind after the EPA changed the game on the RFS last week. After 4 different swings of 30 cents or more, D6 ethanol RINs are hovering just under the $1 mark. D4 RINs have not been as volatile (which is normal for the lower volume contract) and the spread between D4 and D6 has blown out to an all-time record beyond 60 cents for 2021 contracts, compared to spreads of less than a dime for most of this year, while the spread for 2022 contracts is less than 30 cents, reflecting the dramatic change in the RVOs.
Today’s interesting read: A report from the Dallas Fed on the acceleration in US migration from major metro areas to Texas since the pandemic started. Some interesting notes: California/New York and Illinois (Chicago) are seeing mass exodus that would make Moses proud. DFW is the leading recipient of migrants within Texas. People from Houston are moving to DFW, but people from DFW aren’t moving to Houston. Oklahoma is the only state seeing an influx of Texans, which makes sense since it’s basically a suburb of DFW now.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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View AllEnergy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher This Morning But Remain Well Off The Highs Set Early Thursday
Energy markets are ticking modestly higher this morning but remain well off the highs set early Thursday following the reports that Russia was temporarily banning most refined product exports.
The law of government intervention and unintended consequences: Russian officials claim the export ban is an effort to promote market stability, and right on cue, its gasoline prices plummeted a not-so-stable 10% following the news.
There’s a saying that bull markets don’t end due to bad news, they end when the market stops rallying on good news. It’s possible that if ULSD futures continue lower after failing to sustain yesterday’s rally, or this morning’s, we could be seeing the end of the most recent bull run. That said, it’s still much too soon to call the top here, particularly with a steepening forward curve leaving prices susceptible to a squeeze, and the winter-demand months still ahead of us. Short term we need to see ULSD hold above $3.30 next week to avoid breaking its weekly trend line.
The sell-off in RIN values picked up steam Thursday, with 2023 D4 and D6 values dropping to the $1.02 range before finally finding a bid later in the session and ending the day around $1.07.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to be named today, before making landfall on the North Carolina coast tomorrow. This isn’t a major storm, and there aren’t any refineries in its path, so it’s unlikely to do much to disrupt supply, but it will dump heavy rain several of the major East Coast markets so it will likely hamper demand through the weekend. The other storm system being tracked by the NHC is now given 90% odds of being named next week, but its predicted path has shifted north as it moves across the Atlantic, which suggests it is more likely to stay out to sea like Nigel did than threaten either the Gulf or East Coasts.
Exxon reported an upset at its Baytown refinery that’s been ongoing for the past 24 hours. It’s still unclear which units are impacted by this event, and whether or not it will have meaningful impacts on output. Total’s Pt Arthur facility also reported an upset yesterday, but that event lasted less than 90 minutes. Like most upsets in the region recently, traders seem to be shrugging off the news with gulf coast basis values not moving much.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
The Yo-Yo Action In Diesel Continues With Each Day Alternating Between Big Gains And Big Losses So Far This Week
The yo-yo action in diesel continues with each day alternating between big gains and big losses so far this week. Today’s 11-cent rally is being blamed on reports that Russia is cutting exports of refined products effective immediately. It’s been a while since Russian sabre rattling has driven a noticeable price move in energy futures, after being a common occurrence at the start of the war. Just like tweets from our prior President however, these types of announcements seem to have a diminishing shelf-life, particularly given how the industry has adapted to the change in Russian export flows, so don’t be surprised if the early rally loses steam later today.
The announcement also helped gasoline prices rally 5-cents off of their overnight lows, and cling to modest gains just above a penny in the early going. Before the announcement, RBOB futures were poised for a 5th straight day of losses.
IF the export ban lasts, that would be good news for US refiners that have seen their buyers in south American countries – most notably Brazil – reduce their purchases in favor of discounted barrels from Russia this year.
US refinery runs dropped below year-ago levels for the first time in 6 weeks, with PADDS 1, 2 and 3 all seeing large declines at the start of a busy fall maintenance schedule. Oil inventories continued to decline, despite the drop-in run rates and a big increase in the adjustment factor as oil exports surged back north of 5 million barrels/day. Keep in mind that as recently as 2011 the US only produced 5 million barrels of oil every day, and exports were mostly banned until 2016, so to be sending this many barrels overseas is truly a game changer for the global market.
Chicken or the egg? Cushing OK oil stocks dropped below year-ago levels for the first time since January last week, which may be caused by the return of backwardation incenting shippers to lower inventory levels, the shift to new WTI Midland and Houston contracts as the export market expands. Of course, the low inventory levels are also blamed for causing the backwardation in crude oil prices, and the shift to an export market may keep inventories at the NYMEX hub lower for longer as fewer shippers want to go inland with their barrels.
Refined product inventories remain near the bottom end of their seasonal ranges, with a healthy recovery in demand after last week’s holiday hangover helping keep stocks in check. The biggest mover was a large jump in PADD 5 distillates, which was foreshadowed by the 30 cent drop in basis values the day prior. The big story for gasoline on the week was a surge in exports to the highest level of the year, which is helping keep inventories relatively tight despite the driving season having ended 2 weeks ago.
As expected, the FED held rates yesterday, but the open market committee also included a note that they expected to raise rates one more time this year, which sparked a selloff in equity markets that trickled over into energy prices Wednesday afternoon. The correlation between energy and equities has been non-existent of late, and already this morning we’re seeing products up despite equities pointing lower, so it doesn’t look like the FOMC announcement will have a lasting impact on fuel prices this time around.