Gasoline Prices Cling To Small Gains
It’s another quiet start to trading for energy markets, with crude and diesel prices trading modestly lower for a fourth day. Gasoline prices are attempting to cling to small gains amidst fundamental and technical warning signs that suggest that we could see sub $1 product prices in the near future.
In addition to the ubiquitous COVID worries, stimulus package negotiations continue to be a major short term theme. Early optimism for a deal faded Monday, which pushed equity markets from strong early gains to heavy afternoon losses, and carried over to knock energy prices (particularly diesel) down a peg. There’s another round of negotiations reportedly underway today, which is likely contributing to the wait-and-see approach to early trading.
The OPEC & Friends technical meeting seemed to be a non-event, although the chatter is that the cartel will need to push to change plans to start ramping up production in January in order to avoid another price collapse.
West Coast spot markets have seen some strength in over the past several days as reported refiner buying helped basis values recover losses they had earlier in October. Refinery runs remain well below normal due to the sluggish demand and weak margins, and there were reports that the P66 refinery in Rodeo had unplanned maintenance that seemed to lend additional strength to Bay-area values. As the chart below shows, the recent strength is barely noticeable compared to the large swings we’ve been accustomed to in years past. Similar to the muted reaction in Gulf Coast values as multiple hurricanes made landfall, the COVID demand slump seems to be acting as a buffer to any supply disruptions in the region.
The EIA is expecting the fall harvest and a colder than average winter to help alleviate some of the diesel inventory glut that the U.S. has been dealing with since COVID hampered demand, and forced more distillates that would normally be made into Jet fuel into other diesel products. Unfortunately for refiners that desperately need a break, the chart of Midwestern diesel demand below shows that the peak of harvest demand may have already happened last week.
Tropical storm Epsilon has been named, the 26th named storm of this record setting season. The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength as it approaches Bermuda by the end of the week, but should not directly threaten the U.S. or Canadian coastline. The other system being tracked by the NHC in the Caribbean is given just 10% odds of development.
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Energy Markets Are Pointing Modestly Higher To Start Friday’s Session
Energy markets are pointing modestly higher to start Friday’s session, in a meager attempt at a recovery rally at the end of what would be the worst week in over two months if prices settle near current values. The liquidation of speculative bets placed on higher energy prices ahead of the direct conflict between Israel and Iran continues to appear to be the driver of the weakness, and we’ll have to wait and see if this modest bounce is a sign that the liquidation is over, or just a pause before it picks up again. Most contracts remain in a precarious technical position with the potential for a slide towards $70 for WTI and $2.20 for both refined products if the buyers don’t get serious soon.
Stocks are pointing sharply higher after a slowdown in job growth reported in the April Non-Farm payroll report. The BLS reported an increase of 175,000 jobs for the month, down sharply from the 315,000 jobs added in March, and the February & March estimates were revised down a combined 22,000. Both the “official” (U-3) and “real” (U-6) unemployment rates ticked up by .1% to 3.9% and 7.4% respectively. The immediate positive reaction to negative news suggest that the bad news is good news low-interest-rate junkies believe this may help the FED’s dilemma of the US economy being too strong to cut rates. The big jump in equities has not seemed to spill over into energy contracts yet, as crude and refined product contracts changed very little following the report.
San Francisco diesel basis spiked 15 cents Thursday to reach the highest level of any market in the country so far this year at 35 cents over prompt futures. While there aren’t yet any refinery upsets reported to blame the spike on, PBF is undergoing planned maintenance at its Martinez facility, and of course P66 just finished converting its Rodeo plant to RD after Marathon converted its Martinez facility in the past couple of years, meaning there are at most only 2 out of the previous 5 refineries in the region operating near capacity these days. The question now is how quickly barrels can shift north from Southern California which continues to show signs of a supply glut with weak basis values and spot to rack spreads.
PBF continued the trend of Q1 refinery earnings that were sharply lower, but still healthy by longer-term historical standards. The company noted that its Saint Bernard (the parish, not the dog) Renewables facility co-processing at its Chalmette refinery had received provisional approval from CARB to lower its CI scores and help improve the amount of LCFS subsidies it can receive. That facility is operating at 18mb/day which is roughly 86% of its capacity.
Cenovus highlighted the restart of its Toledo and Superior refineries in improved refinery run rates in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 and noted that it had ramped up production at units that were slowed down for economic reasons in December and January (you may remember this as the time when midcontinent basis values were trading 50 cents/gallon below futures). The company did note that the January deep freeze slowed operations at Superior, but did not mention any change in operating rates despite numerous upsets at its 50% owned Borger refinery.
Dress rehearsal for a busy hurricane season? So far there are no reports of refinery issues caused by the flooding in the Houston area this week. At this point, most of the flooding appears to be far to the north of the refining hubs on the Gulf Coast but with more storms in the forecast and 88 counties already declaring disaster status, this will be something to watch for the next few days.
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Crude Oil Inventories Climbed Above Year-Ago Levels For The First Time In 2024
Sell by May then go away.
The old trading adage looked good for energy markets in 2024 as the new month started off with the biggest daily sell-off of the year so far. WTI and ULSD contracts are now in “rally or else” mode on the charts with sharply lower prices a strong possibility now that technical support layers have broken down. RBOB doesn’t look quite as bearish on the charts, but seasonal factors will now act as a headwind as we’re well into the spring peaking window for gasoline prices, and we’ve already seen a 27 cent drop from the highs. If RBOB can hold above $2.50 there’s a chance to avoid a larger selloff, but if not, a run towards $2.20 for both gasoline and diesel looks likely in the months ahead.
The selling picked up steam following the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, even though the inventory changes were fairly small. Crude oil inventories continue their steady build and climbed above year-ago levels for the first time in 2024. Demand for refined products remains sluggish, even after accounting for the RD consumption that’s still not in the weekly reports, and most PADDs are following a typical seasonal inventory trend. The Gulf Coast saw a healthy build in diesel inventories last week as the export market slowed for a 3rd straight week. Refinery runs dipped modestly last week following a handful of upsets across the country, but overall rates remain near normal levels for this time of year.
The Transmountain pipeline expansion began operations yesterday, completing a 12-year saga that has the potential to materially change refining economics for plants in the US that relied heavily on discounted Canadian crude to turn profits over the past decade.
The P66 Borger refinery reported another operational upset Monday that lasted a full 24 hours impacting a sulfur recovery unit. Last week the company highlighted how the plant’s fire department helped the surrounding area when the largest wildfire in state history came within feet of the facility.
The EPA approved a new model to determine life cycle carbon intensity scores this week, which cracks open the door for things like ethanol to SAF, which were previously deemed to not reduce emissions enough to qualify for government subsidies. The new model would require improved farming techniques like no-till, cover crop planting and using higher efficiency nitrogen fertilizer to limit the damage done by farms that no longer rotate crops due to the ethanol mandates. Whether or not the theoretical ability to produce SAF comes to fruition in the coming years thanks to the increased tax credit potential will be a key pivot point for some markets that find themselves with too much RD today, but could see those supplies transition to aviation demand.
The FED continues to throw cold water on anyone hoping for a near term cut in interest rates. The FOMC held rates steady as expected Wednesday, but also highlighted the struggles with stubbornly high inflation. The CME’s Fedwatch tool gave 58% odds of at least one rate cut by September before the announcement, and those odds have slipped modestly to 54% this morning.