IEA Increases Global Demand Forecast
No luck for the bulls so far this morning as the energy complex is facing a wave of selling for a third straight day. RBOB gasoline futures are once again leading the move lower, after a furious late day rally briefly pushed gasoline prices into positive territory Tuesday, only to fall back into the red just before settlement. Some technical analysts view a failed rally attempt like we saw yesterday as a bearish signal, since buyers are unable to gather enough momentum to end the day on a strong note, and that theory is looking good at the moment, now we’ll see if it lasts the day.
This selloff has ULSD futures roughly three cents away from the trend-line that’s held the rally since November 1, while RBOB futures will need to break below $2 this week in order to follow suit. Whether or not we see prices break that trend will likely be pivotal in determining if the $2.17 mark set early Monday will prove to be the high trade of the year. If so, we’d expect another 20-30 cents of downside on gasoline prices if the seasonal rally unwinds like it does most years.
The IEA increased its global demand forecast in its latest monthly oil market report, but also suggested that the spare capacity of oil production sitting on the sidelines was more than capable of handling that increase. The IEA report seems to throw cold water on recent Bank reports suggesting a new commodity supercycle that will send oil prices much higher in the coming years.
The API reported more pedestrian changes in inventory levels last week, in comparison to the past two record setting weeks. Crude & Gasoline stocks were both down around one million barrels, while distillates grew by a little under one million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning, with the refinery runs the key figure to watch as it’s still hard to decipher what units at what facilities have returned to normal levels after the February freeze.
Supply allocations, particularly for diesel and premium gasoline grades, remain tight across the southern half of the country, with occasional outages continuing to pop up from New Mexico through the South East. Easing cash market differentials in most regions besides the West Coast suggest that resupplies are on the way, but it will probably be about another week or more before the markets further from the refining hubs start to feel some relief.
RIN prices seem to be catching their breath after a strong rally that approached all-time highs Monday. The AFPM sent a letter to the EPA urging it to act since the spike in prices, which it argues are partially caused by the agency not meeting its deadline to set obligation levels, are threatening to put more refiners out of business. A change in stance from the EPA back in 2013 helped RIN values drop by more than $1/RIN, so any reaction or lack of from the agency will certainly be market moving news.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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“Buy The Rumor, Sell The News” Seems To Be The Trading Pattern Of The Week
“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” seems to be the trading pattern of the week as oil and refined products dropped sharply Thursday after OPEC & Friends announced another round of output cuts for the first quarter of next year.
Part of the reason for the decline following that report is that it appears that the cartel wasn’t able to reach an official agreement on the plan for next year, prompting those that could volunteer their own production cuts without forcing restrictions on others. In addition, OPEC members not named Saudi Arabia are notorious for exceeding official quotas when they are able to, and Russia appears to be (surprise) playing games by announcing a cut that is made up of both crude oil and refined products, which are already restricted and thus allow an incremental increase of exports.
Diesel futures are leading the way lower this morning, following a 13-cent drop from their morning highs Thursday, and came within 3-cents of a new 4-month low overnight. The prompt contract did leave a gap on the chart due to the backwardation between December and January contracts, which cut out another nickel from up front values.
Gasoline futures meanwhile are down 15-cents from yesterday’s pre-OPEC highs and are just 7-cents away from reaching a new 1-year low.
Cash markets across most of the country are looking soft as they often do this time of year, with double digit discounts to futures becoming the rule across the Gulf Coast and Mid Continent. The West Coast is mixed with diesel prices seeing big discounts in San Francisco, despite multiple refinery upsets this week, while LA clings to small premiums.
Ethanol prices continue to hold near multi-year lows this week as controversy over the fuel swirls. Corn growing states filed a motion this week trying to compel the courts to force the EPA to waive pollution laws to allow E15 blends. Meanwhile, the desire to grow even more corn to produce Jet Fuel is being hotly debated as the environmental impacts depend on which side of the food to fuel lobby you talk to.
The chaotic canal congestion in Panama is getting worse as authorities are continuing to reduce the daily number of ships transiting due to low water levels. Those delays are hitting many industries, energy included, and are now spilling over to one of the world’s other key shipping bottlenecks.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
No Official Word From OPEC Yet On Their Output Agreement For Next Year
Energy prices are pushing higher to start Thursday’s session after a big bounce Wednesday helped the complex maintain its upward momentum for the week.
There’s no official word from OPEC yet on their output agreement for next year, but the rumor-mill is in high gear as always leading up to the official announcement, if one is actually made at all. A Reuters article this morning suggests that “sources” believe Saudi Arabia will continue leading the cartel with a voluntary output cut of around 1-million BPD to begin the year and given the recent drop in prices that seems like a logical move.
We saw heavy selling in the immediate wake of the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, only to see prices reverse course sharply later in the day. ULSD was down more than 9-cents for a few minutes following the report but bounced more than 7-cents in the afternoon and is leading the push higher this morning so far.
It’s common to see demand drop sharply following a holiday, particularly for diesel as many commercial users simply shut down their operations for several days, but last week’s drop in implied diesel demand was one of the largest on record for the DOE’s estimates. That drop in demand, along with higher refinery runs, helped push diesel inventories higher in all markets, and the weekly days of supply estimate jumped from below the 5-year seasonal range around 25 days of supply to above the high end of the range at 37 days of supply based on last week’s estimated usage although it’s all but guaranteed we’ll see a correction higher in demand next week.
Gasoline demand also slumped, dropping to the low end of the seasonal range, and below year-ago levels for the first time in 5-weeks. You’d never guess that based on the bounce in gasoline prices that followed the DOE’s report however, with traders appearing to bet that the demand slump in a seasonal anomaly and tighter than average inventories may drive a counter-seasonal price rally.
Refinery runs increased across the country as plants returned to service following the busiest fall maintenance season in at least 4-years. While total refinery run rates are still below last year’s levels, they’re now above the 5-year average with more room to increase as no major upsets have been reported to keep a large amount of throughput offline.
The exception to the refinery run ramp up comes from PADD 4 which was the only region to see a decline last week after Suncor apparently had another inopportune upset at its beleaguered facility outside Denver.
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends today, and it will go down as the 4th most active season on record, even though it certainly didn’t feel too severe given that the US dodged most of the storms.
Today is also the expiration day for December 2023 ULSD and RBOB futures so look to the January contracts (RBF and HOF) for price direction if your market hasn’t already rolled.
More refineries ready to change hands next year? With Citgo scheduled to be auctioned off, Irving Oil undergoing a strategic evaluation, and multiple new refineries possibly coming online, 2024 was already looking to be a turbulent year for refinery owners. Phillips 66 was indicating that it may sell off some of its refinery assets, but a new activist investor may upend those plans, along with the company’s directors.