Inventory Draws And Positive Economic Reports
Inventory draws and some positive economic reports are getting credit for another modest push higher in energy and equity markets to start Tuesday’s trading, but petroleum futures remain stuck in the sideways range that’s held them for most of the summer.
The API’s weekly report was said to show crude oil stocks decreasing by 6.3 million barrels, gasoline down 5.7 million and distillates down 1.4 million. Last week’s data will be even harder than normal to estimate with most Gulf of Mexico oil production shut in, nearly 20 percent of the country’s refining capacity under some state of precautionary operational cut backs, and numerous port closures. The EIA’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning, and should give a more detailed view into Laura’s impacts, most of which appear to be short-lived.
Speaking of which, a lack of power continues to hamper restart efforts at a few plants in the Port Arthur hub, while damage assessments are still underway for the Lake Charles plants, leaving roughly one million barrels/day of capacity offline. While some allocations remain in place in downstream markets as a result of these outages, overall price action in both futures and cash markets has been muted and outages rare thanks to the excess inventory on hand in most areas.
Nana and Omar were both named as tropical storms in the past 24 hours, but neither system poses a threat to the U.S. coast. Nana is heading west into Central America, and Omar is heading east out to sea. Two more systems are moving off the coast of Africa, one of which is given 60 percent odds of developing that we’ll need to keep an eye on over the weekend.
The EIA this morning published a look at global jet fuel demand, which has taken the hardest hit of the petroleum products as commercial air travel became transporta-non-grata during the pandemic. The report notes that while demand remains well off pre-COVID levels, the U.S. is seeing a stronger recovery than most international markets.
Holly Frontier published an investor presentation this morning, which highlighted its push for Renewable Diesel production at the Artesia, NM and Cheyenne, WY refineries, currently expected to come online Q1 2022, and expected expansion of its HEP midstream business. The presentation also highlighted the company’s ability to capture increased returns in a handful of Western U.S. markets, vs their peers based in the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Refined Products Holding Close To Break Even While Oil Prices Are Losing Just Under 1%
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
The energy complex is trading modestly lower so far this morning with WTI crude oil futures leading the way, exchanging hands $1.50 per barrel lower (-1.9%) than Tuesday’s settlement price. Gasoline and diesel futures are following suit, dropping .0390 and .0280 per gallon, respectively.
A surprise crude oil build (one that doesn’t include any changes to the SPR) as reported by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday is taking credit for the bearish trading seen this morning. The Institute estimated an increase in crude inventories of ~5 million barrels and drop in both refined product stocks of 1.5-2.2 million barrels for the week ending April 26. The Department of Energy’s official report is due out at it’s regular time (9:30 CDT) this morning.
The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing at 9:00 AM EST this morning regarding a years-long probe into climate change messaging from big oil companies. Following a 3-year investigation, Senate and House Democrats released their final report yesterday alleging major oil companies have internally recognized the impacts of fossil fuels on the climate since as far back as the 1960s, while privately lobbying against climate legislation and publicly presenting a narrative that undermines a connection between the two. Whether this will have a tangible effect on policy or is just the latest announcement in an election-yeardeluge is yet to be seen.
Speaking of deluge, another drone attack was launched against Russian infrastructure earlier this morning, causing an explosion and subsequent fire at Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery. While likely a response to the five killed from Russian missile strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, Kyiv has yet to officially claim responsibility for the attack that successfully struck state infrastructure just 130 miles from Moscow.
The crude oil bears are on a tear this past week, blowing past WTI’s 5 and 10 day moving averages on Monday and opening below it’s 50-day MA this morning. The $80 level is likely a key resistance level, below which the path is open for the American oil benchmark to drop to the $75 level in short order.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Energy futures are drifting quietly higher this morning as a new round of hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas seem to show relative promise. It seems the market is focusing on the prospect of cooler heads prevailing, rather than the pervasive rocket/drone exchanges, the latest of which took place over Israel’s northern border.
A warmer-than-expected winter depressed diesel demand and, likewise, distillate refinery margins, which has dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2022. The ULSD forward curve has shifted into contango (carry) over the past month as traders seek to store their diesel inventories and hope for a pickup in demand, domestic or otherwise.
The DOE announced it had continued rebuilding it’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve this month, noting the addition of 2.3 million barrels of crude so far in April. Depending on what the private sector reported for last week, Wednesday’s DOE report may put current national crude oil inventories (include those of the SPR) above the year’s previous levels, something we haven’t seen since April of 2022, two months after Ukraine war began.
The latest in the Dangote Refinery Saga: Credit stall-out, rising oil prices, and currency exchange.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.