Markets Cheer News Of New U.S. Treasury Secretary
Energy markets are on the cusp of a technical breakout to the upside with diesel prices hitting eight month highs, while crude and gasoline prices follow close behind.
Markets around the world seem to be cheering the news that Janet Yellen – the relatively market-friendly former FED Chair – is being tapped as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. That move is seen by many as a sign that the new administration will be more focused on economic recovery than reform. In addition, reports that the Presidential transition is moving forward seems to be easing concerns over a protracted legal battle.
ULSD is trading higher for a seventh consecutive day, reaching a new eight month high and moving half way into the chart gap left behind during the March price collapse. WTI came within three cents of hitting an eight month high of its own overnight, setting up a critical test of the sideways trading pattern that’s contained the price action for June. There’s an interesting potential move on the WTI monthly chart, as the short lived selloff Sunday, November 1 and subsequent rally could make an outside up monthly bar that breaks both the low and the high ends of that sideways range. If prices can settle the month by breaking through the top end (near $44) there’s a strong case to be made that we’re soon going to see $50 crude.
Diverging diesel markets: Midwestern diesel spreads are collapsing this week after hitting their highest premiums in years as the annual post-harvest demand slump seems to be in full force across the region. Gulf coast values saw modest weakness in sympathy as the window to profitably ship barrels north has closed. West Coast values meanwhile are trading at double digit premiums to futures, with LA spots rebounding sharply from a mid-November slump, in what seems to be a reaction to a handful of unplanned refinery issues in the area.
The CFTC published a report on WTI’s plunge to negative values on April 20th. The report cites numerous fundamental and technical factors, and stops short of placing blame, and in many ways suggests the market performed as intended. The results are disappointing many who were looking for a smoking gun, and those that have a hard time understanding how complex commodity futures trading can be. One interesting point brought up in the report is the relatively high open interest in WTI in April, and the amount of positions held by “non-reportable” trading groups, meaning those with small enough positions they aren’t required to report to the CFTC. Those findings are consistent with earlier reports that suggested retail investors – many in China - were left holding the bag when they started trading in WTI without understanding how the contract really works.
NYMEX contracts will trade every day this week, although there will be no settlements published Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Spot markets will not be assessed Thursday or Friday, so most rack prices will carry from Wednesday night through the weekend, even though futures will continue trading.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Refined Products Are Moving Lower For A 2nd Day After Coming Under Heavy Selling Pressure In Wednesday’s Session
Refined products are moving lower for a 2nd day after coming under heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s session. Rapidly increasing refinery runs and sluggish diesel demand both seemed to weigh heavily on product prices, while crude oil is still benefitting from the disruption of exports from Iraq. Prices remain range-bound, so expect more choppy back and forth action in the weeks ahead.
US oil inventories saw a large decline last week, despite another 13-million barrels of oil being found in the weekly adjustment figure, as imports dropped to a 2-year low, and refinery runs cranked up in most regions as many facilities return from spring maintenance.
The refining utilization percentage jumped to its highest level of the year but remains overstated since the new 250,000 barrels/day of output from Exxon’s Beaumont facility still isn’t being counted in the official capacity figures. If you’re shocked that the government report could have such a glaring omission, then you haven’t been paying attention to the Crude Adjustment figure this year, and the artificially inflated petroleum demand estimates that have come with it.
Speaking of which, we’re now just a couple of months away from WTI Midland crude oil being included in the Dated Brent index, and given the uncertainty in the US over what should be classified as oil vs condensate, expect some confusion once those barrels start being included in the international benchmark as well.
Diesel demand continues to hover near the lowest levels we’ve seen for the first quarter in the past 20+ years, dropping sharply again last week after 2 straight weeks of increases had some markets hoping that the worst was behind us. Now that we’re moving out of the heating season, we’ll soon get more clarity on how on road and industrial demand is holding up on its own in the weekly figures that have been heavily influenced by the winter that wasn’t across large parts of the country.
Speaking of which, the EIA offered another mea culpa of sorts Wednesday by comparing its October Winter Fuels outlook to the current reality, which shows a huge reduction in heating demand vs expectations just 6-months ago.
It’s not just domestic consumption of diesel that’s under pressure, exports have fallen below their 5-year average as buyers in South America are buying more Russian barrels, and European nations are getting more from new facilities in the Middle East.
Take a look at the spike in PADD 5 gasoline imports last week to get a feel for how the region may soon be forced to adjust to rapidly increasing refining capacity in Asia, while domestic facilities come under pressure.
Crude Oil Prices Are Trying To Lead Another Rally In Energy Futures This Morning
Crude oil prices are trying to lead another rally in energy futures this morning, while ULSD prices are resisting the pull higher. Stocks are pointed higher in the early going as no news is seen as good news in the banking crisis.
WTI prices have rallied by $10/barrel in the past 7 trading days, even with a $5 pullback last Thursday and Friday. The recovery puts WTI back in the top half of its March trading range but there’s still another $7 to go before the highs of the month are threatened.
Yesterday’s API report seems to be aiding the continued strength in crude, with a 6 million barrel inventory decline estimated by the industry group last week. That report also showed a decline of 5.9 million barrels of gasoline which is consistent with the spring pattern of drawdowns as we move through the RVP transition, while distillates saw a build of 550k barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Diesel prices seems to be reacting both to the small build in inventories – which is yet another data point of the weak demand so far this year for distillates – and on the back of crumbling natural gas prices that settled at their lowest levels in 2.5 years yesterday and fell below $2/million BTU this morning.
While diesel futures are soft, rack markets across the Southwestern US remain unusually tight, with spreads vs spot markets approaching $1/gallon in several cases as local refiners go through maintenance and pipeline capacity for resupply remains limited. The tightest supply in the region however remains the Phoenix CBG boutique gasoline grade which is going for $1.20/gallon over spots as several of the few refineries that can make that product are having to perform maintenance at the same time.
French refinery strikes continue for a 4th week and are estimated to be keeping close to 1 million barrels/day of fuel production offline, which is roughly 90% of French capacity and almost 1% of total global capacity. That disruption is having numerous ripple effects on crude oil markets in the Atlantic basin, while the impact on refined product supplies and prices remains much more contained than it was when this happened just 5 months ago.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.