Moving Through February Demand Doldrums
Energy prices are seeing a modest pullback to start Thursday after WTI and ULSD futures stretched their winning streak to eight straight sessions on Wednesday, reaching new one-year highs in the process. Some sobering fundamental data seems to be giving the market reason to pause, although the trend-lines are still intact and pointing higher for now, and prices have already bounced off of their overnight lows.
Gasoline prices are faring the worst this week as we move through the February demand doldrums with a parade of winter storms and record-setting cold on tap for the next week.
The DOE’s weekly report didn’t offer any help to the stumble in gasoline prices as another large build in inventories, most of which came in PADD 1, reminded traders that prices are up 65% from three months ago even though inventory levels have swelled by more than 10% during that stretch. The past three weeks alone have seen gasoline stocks move from below the five year average seasonal range to the top end of that range. With demand still struggling, leaving days of supply at the highest levels since the lock-downs last spring, the chances of the normal seasonal drawdown in supplies is looking like a challenge.
Refinery runs picked up across all 5 PADDs last week, which seems to be putting downward pressure on basis values along the coastal markets. Meanwhile mid-continent markets have strengthened this week, as inventories in the Midwest remain below average, and in what could be some expectation that the cold snap could cause some refinery hiccups, particularly for those plants on the southern edge of the region that don’t plan for single digit temps.
RIN values continue to come under heavy selling pressure this week. The new EPA administrator appointee seems to be holding his cards close to the vest, saying in an interview that he planned on reviewing options for the RFS, and not offering any hint on potential obligation changes.
The IEA’s monthly oil market report called the global supply/demand rebalancing “fragile” as the new, more-contagious variants of COVID-19 threatens the demand recovery. The report did make a reduction in its expected total demand for 2021, but only because the actual demand numbers for last year were found to be lower than previous estimates, so the rate of expected change year on year has not changed. The IEA’s report also highlighted that refinery runs in the Atlantic basin are set to lead the recovery in 2021, after they dropped to the lowest level in the 50 years the agency has been tracking those levels.
The EIA’s monthly short term energy outlook highlighted similar concerns for the first half of the year as the IEA’s report, with expectations for a strong recovery in the back half of the year. The STEO highlighted the relatively small spread between winter and summer gasoline grades this year, which are roughly half of what we’ve come to expect. The report suggests the weak demand and low refinery run rates are the cause for this small spread, but failed to mention the EPA’s fuel compliance streamlining that should make summer-grades less expensive this year.
Perhaps the most interesting detail in the February STEO is the comparison of natural gas prices in the U.S. which are hovering around $3/million BTU, vs. other parts of the world that are paying $10-$20. Chart below.
In case you can’t get enough of the monthly reports that remind us COVID has hurt demand, but it should get better eventually, OPEC’s monthly oil market report will be out later this morning.
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Refined Products Bounce Back And Forth Across The Break-Even Line To Start Friday’s Trading
The choppy action continues for energy markets with refined products bouncing back and forth across the break-even line to start Friday’s trading after some big swings Thursday.
RBOB futures led the rollercoaster ride Thursday, trading up 4 cents in the early morning hours, only to see those gains turn into 10 cent losses mid-morning, and then erasing most of those losses in the early afternoon following an ENT report of unplanned maintenance at the largest refinery on the East Coast.
The selling portion of the ride was blamed on a combination of an increase in jobless claims, and the disruptive impacts of the Canadian wildfires on the major population centers along the East Coast. While air traffic has been disrupted, so far there are not any reports of delays in ship traffic around the New York Harbor, and the strong basis and time spreads we’ve seen in NY have been easing this week, so it appears that this event is more concerning to the demand side of the equation than supply.
From a technical perspective, it’s not surprising to see this type of back-and-forth action as most petroleum contracts look to be stuck in neutral territory on the charts, which encourages trading programs to sell as prices get towards the top end of a range, and buy when it gets to the low end.
The Atlantic Hurricane season is off to a quiet start with no tropical development expected over the next week, but NOAA did issue an El Nino advisory Thursday that suggests the warm-water pattern in the Pacific could reach “supersized” levels and create all sorts of disruptive events. Perhaps most notable in the report is that forecasters don’t believe this year’s El Nino will have the same dampening impact on Atlantic hurricanes due to record warm temperatures in the water. Here’s a brief recap in case you missed the most memorable El Nino from 25 years ago.
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Gasoline Futures Rally Despite Inventory Builds, Increased Throughput
Gasoline futures led another strong rally in the energy complex Wednesday and continued marching higher overnight before pulling back to near break-even levels around 7:45am central.
The RBOB contract has now wiped out the post-Memorial Day selloff, and erased the losses from the contract roll to July, setting up another test of the May highs at $2.73. If that resistance breaks, there’s a good chance we see another run at the $2.90 level, but if it holds we are probably still stuck in a sideways pattern as we move through the summer months. West Coast gasoline prices meanwhile have reached a 3-month high as surging basis values compound the move in futures.
The rally came despite healthy inventory builds for refined products and strong refinery runs across all 5 PADDs reported last week, with traders (or their algorithms) appearing to focus instead on healthy demand estimates in the DOE’s weekly status report. Gasoline also saw healthy exports last week, while diesel shipments overseas continued their decline which has helped keep downward pressure on diesel prices, which is essentially the polar opposite of what we were experiencing a year ago.
Lies, damned Lies and statistics: PADD 3 refinery utilization hit 98.8% of the official capacity figure last week, which would mark a 5 year high, except the numbers are wrong. The DOE still isn’t including recent capacity additions of almost 300mb/day in those stats, so the actual figure is about 3% lower. Don’t worry though, the lack of accurate data probably isn’t intentional. The DOE recently announced it was suspending data collection for some of its monthly reports as the agency is still struggling to overcome the IT Systems failure they experienced a year ago. Add this to the realization that the official crude production and petroleum demand figures have been incorrect due to a lack of clarity surrounding condensate production that comes along with oil output.
Speaking of which, the official US Oil output figure surged to the highest levels since the COVID lockdowns began more than 3 years ago last week. No word from the EIA if this means actual production increased, or if they’ve just changed the way they’re reporting the molecules coming out of the ground.
Irving Oil released a statement highlighting a strategic review of the company, that could include selling the business that’s been held by the Irving family for nearly 100 years. The Irving Refinery in New Brunswick is Canada’s largest at 300mb/day and is the largest importer of fuels into the northeastern US. Critics are arguing that the review is an attempt to politicize Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulation that could weigh on the refinery’s profitability when it goes into full effect in July or could simply incentivize the facility to send more product to the US.
RIN values saw their first bounce in a couple of weeks, with both D6 and D4 values climbing back above the $1.40 mark after their recent slide from the mid $1.50s. We’re still 6 days away from the EPA’s deadline to issue the final RFS ruling for the next couple of years.
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Energy Prices Fluctuate: Chinese Imports Surge, Saudi Arabia Cuts Output and Buys Golf
Energy prices continue their back-and-forth trading, starting Wednesday’s session with modest gains, after a round of selling Tuesday wiped out the Saudi output cut bounce.
A surge in China’s imports of crude oil and natural gas seem to be the catalyst for the early move higher, even though weak export activity from the world’s largest fuel buyer suggests the global economy is still struggling.
New tactic? Saudi Arabia’s plan to voluntarily cut oil production by another 1 million barrels/day failed to sustain a rally in oil prices to start the week, so they bought the PGA tour.
The EIA’s monthly Short Term Energy Outlook raised its price forecast for oil, citing the Saudi cuts, and OPEC’s commitment to extend current production restrictions through 2024. The increase in prices comes despite reducing the forecast for US fuel consumption, as GDP growth projections continue to decline from previous estimates.
The report included a special article on diesel consumption, and its changing relationship with economic activity that does a good job of explaining why diesel prices are $2/gallon cheaper today than they were a year ago.
The API reported healthy builds in refined product inventories last week, with distillates up 4.5 million barrels while gasoline stocks were up 2.4 million barrels in the wake of Memorial Day. Crude inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels on the week. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
We’re still waiting on the EPA’s final ruling on the Renewable Fuel Standard for the next few years, which is due a week from today, but another Reuters article suggests that eRINs will not be included in this round of making up the rules.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.