New Tropical Storm Formed Over the Weekend And Several More Refinery Upsets Reported

Market TalkMonday, Sep 25 2023
Pivotal Week For Price Action

The energy rally lost its momentum last week, and we’re seeing chart support tested in early Monday trading as a result. ULSD is leading the move lower so far this morning and is threatening a break of its weekly trend-line around the $3.30 range. Prices are currently trading below that line, and if we see a settlement below that level the charts favor a push towards the $3 mark. There’s also about 7-cents of backwardation between the October and November contracts, so the technical pressure will only increase as we approach October’s expiration Friday.

For RBOB we’re seeing a test of the September lows around $2.55 this morning, with a break of that support setting up a 10-cent slide in short order, with a run at $2.25 looking likely as we move deeper into fall.  

Money managers showed a mixed reaction to energy markets last week with large speculators adding to bets on higher prices in WTI, Brent and ULSD, while reducing their positions in RBOB and Gasoil. The net length held by money managers in WTI contracts reached its highest level since February of 2022 last week, while Brent saw its speculative length reach a 6-month high. The drop in gasoil positioning is noteworthy as it is counter-seasonal, whereas the decline in RBOB bets and increase in ULSD are more what we’d expect to see this time of year as driving activity slows and heating demand starts to increase.

Baker Hughes reported a decline of 8 oil rigs and 3 natural gas rigs last week, bringing the total to a fresh 19-month low. So far, the steady decline in drilling activity hasn’t impacted domestic oil production in the official numbers, although there’s plenty of noise relating to what the EIA classifies as oil vs condensate to make accurate historical comparisons challenging. The big question for the balance of the year is whether or not $90 oil brings drillers back to the rigs?

After Ophelia battered the East Coast over the weekend, Tropical Storm Philippe has formed in the Atlantic – the 12th named storm in the past 5 weeks - but is expected to hook north and east similar to what we saw Nigel do last week, and not threaten the US coast.  There’s another storm system given 80% odds of developing in the next week in the same area, but early models suggest it too will stay out to sea. There’s another system being watched in the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s only given 10% odds of developing by the NHC.

There were several more refinery upsets reported over the past few days. An unplanned flaring event reported at Chevron’s Los Angeles area refinery late Friday promises to keep the West Coast basis rollercoaster rolling as we wind down the summer-RVP season, while upsets at Valero’s plant in Corpus Christi, another in a string of upsets at the P66 facility in Borger TX, and an unplanned shutdown of the Delek facility in Tyler TX have all failed to stir any buying interest. Of course, it seems like we can’t go an entire week without a reported upset at the beleaguered Marathon refinery in Texas City, with a coker unit at that facility tripping offline Friday. 

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Market Talk Update 09.25.2023

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkFriday, Dec 1 2023

“Buy The Rumor, Sell The News” Seems To Be The Trading Pattern Of The Week

“Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” seems to be the trading pattern of the week as oil and refined products dropped sharply Thursday after OPEC & Friends announced another round of output cuts for the first quarter of next year. 

Part of the reason for the decline following that report is that it appears that the cartel wasn’t able to reach an official agreement on the plan for next year, prompting those that could volunteer their own production cuts without forcing restrictions on others. In addition, OPEC members not named Saudi Arabia are notorious for exceeding official quotas when they are able to, and Russia appears to be (surprise) playing games by announcing a cut that is made up of both crude oil and refined products, which are already restricted and thus allow an incremental increase of exports. 

Diesel futures are leading the way lower this morning, following a 13-cent drop from their morning highs Thursday, and came within 3-cents of a new 4-month low overnight. The prompt contract did leave a gap on the chart due to the backwardation between December and January contracts, which cut out another nickel from up front values.

Gasoline futures meanwhile are down 15-cents from yesterday’s pre-OPEC highs and are just 7-cents away from reaching a new 1-year low.  

Cash markets across most of the country are looking soft as they often do this time of year, with double digit discounts to futures becoming the rule across the Gulf Coast and Mid Continent. The West Coast is mixed with diesel prices seeing big discounts in San Francisco, despite multiple refinery upsets this week, while LA clings to small premiums. 

Ethanol prices continue to hold near multi-year lows this week as controversy over the fuel swirls. Corn growing states filed a motion this week trying to compel the courts to force the EPA to waive pollution laws to allow E15 blends. Meanwhile, the desire to grow even more corn to produce Jet Fuel is being hotly debated as the environmental impacts depend on which side of the food to fuel lobby you talk to.

The chaotic canal congestion in Panama is getting worse as authorities are continuing to reduce the daily number of ships transiting due to low water levels. Those delays are hitting many industries, energy included, and are now spilling over to one of the world’s other key shipping bottlenecks.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Nov 30 2023

No Official Word From OPEC Yet On Their Output Agreement For Next Year

Energy prices are pushing higher to start Thursday’s session after a big bounce Wednesday helped the complex maintain its upward momentum for the week.   

There’s no official word from OPEC yet on their output agreement for next year, but the rumor-mill is in high gear as always leading up to the official announcement, if one is actually made at all. A Reuters article this morning suggests that “sources” believe Saudi Arabia will continue leading the cartel with a voluntary output cut of around 1-million BPD to begin the year and given the recent drop in prices that seems like a logical move. 

We saw heavy selling in the immediate wake of the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, only to see prices reverse course sharply later in the day. ULSD was down more than 9-cents for a few minutes following the report but bounced more than 7-cents in the afternoon and is leading the push higher this morning so far.

It’s common to see demand drop sharply following a holiday, particularly for diesel as many commercial users simply shut down their operations for several days, but last week’s drop in implied diesel demand was one of the largest on record for the DOE’s estimates. That drop in demand, along with higher refinery runs, helped push diesel inventories higher in all markets, and the weekly days of supply estimate jumped from below the 5-year seasonal range around 25 days of supply to above the high end of the range at 37 days of supply based on last week’s estimated usage although it’s all but guaranteed we’ll see a correction higher in demand next week.

Gasoline demand also slumped, dropping to the low end of the seasonal range, and below year-ago levels for the first time in 5-weeks. You’d never guess that based on the bounce in gasoline prices that followed the DOE’s report however, with traders appearing to bet that the demand slump in a seasonal anomaly and tighter than average inventories may drive a counter-seasonal price rally.

Refinery runs increased across the country as plants returned to service following the busiest fall maintenance season in at least 4-years. While total refinery run rates are still below last year’s levels, they’re now above the 5-year average with more room to increase as no major upsets have been reported to keep a large amount of throughput offline.

The exception to the refinery run ramp up comes from PADD 4 which was the only region to see a decline last week after Suncor apparently had another inopportune upset at its beleaguered facility outside Denver. 

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends today, and it will go down as the 4th most active season on record, even though it certainly didn’t feel too severe given that the US dodged most of the storms.  

Today is also the expiration day for December 2023 ULSD and RBOB futures so look to the January contracts (RBF and HOF) for price direction if your market hasn’t already rolled.

More refineries ready to change hands next year?  With Citgo scheduled to be auctioned off, Irving Oil undergoing a strategic evaluation, and multiple new refineries possibly coming online, 2024 was already looking to be a turbulent year for refinery owners. Phillips 66 was indicating that it may sell off some of its refinery assets, but a new activist investor may upend those plans, along with the company’s directors.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action