Panic Has Crept In To Global Equity Markets
For the first time since April a bit of panic has crept in to global equity markets and the ripple effects are being felt in the energy arena. The DJIA had its 3rd worst point drop in history Wednesday, wiping out nearly 2 months of gains, and several other indices have fallen below their 200 day moving averages for the first time in 6 months. Stock markets around the world caught the selling bug overnight and now US futures suggest the cycle may begin again today.
Energy markets have not been immune to the selling– as is often the case in a fear-driven market, correlations between asset-classes increases – setting up a pivotal test for oil prices to end the week. At this moment, both Brent and WTI are trading below the trend line that began almost 8 weeks ago, and if they can settle below it that would leave the door open to a test of the longer term trend some $5/barrel below current levels. If prices manage to bounce however, the past 2 days of selling will look more like an overdue correction for an overheated market, rather than a change in the trend.
The API did not offer any relief for energy bulls as it was reported to show a build of 9.7 million barrels in US oil inventories last week, along with a 3.3 million barrel build in gasoline stocks. If confirmed in today’s Columbus day-delayed DOE report, that would be the largest weekly increase in more than 1.5 years. Then again, last week’s DOE report showed a build that was 7 million barrels larger than the API’s report, so yesterday’s report could simply be the industry group’s data catching up to the government’s, and we may not see much of an increase at all today. We’ll find out at 11am Eastern.
Looking for a silver lining in the midst of the selling? The big declines have brought back the “Face-in-hand trader” one of the more beloved characters in modern headline literature.
It’s been a rough week for Canada Eh? With the country’s largest refinery closed due to an explosion and fire, Western Canadian Crude prices reaching 2 year lows at $27/barrel, then a major natural gas pipeline explosion that may cause power outages and refinery closures around the Pacific North West.
Those PNW refinery closures have sent prices in the region soaring, with RBOB values around Portland trading some 50 cents above NYMEX futures, which is dragging up gasoline values in California by 20-30 cents as replacement barrels will be needed from the south.
The damage assessments are beginning after the record-setting landfall of Hurricane Michael. While the damage is sure to be devastating in many ways, at this point it appears that the impacts to energy infrastructure are minimal.
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Refined Products Holding Close To Break Even While Oil Prices Are Losing Just Under 1%
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
The energy complex is trading modestly lower so far this morning with WTI crude oil futures leading the way, exchanging hands $1.50 per barrel lower (-1.9%) than Tuesday’s settlement price. Gasoline and diesel futures are following suit, dropping .0390 and .0280 per gallon, respectively.
A surprise crude oil build (one that doesn’t include any changes to the SPR) as reported by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday is taking credit for the bearish trading seen this morning. The Institute estimated an increase in crude inventories of ~5 million barrels and drop in both refined product stocks of 1.5-2.2 million barrels for the week ending April 26. The Department of Energy’s official report is due out at it’s regular time (9:30 CDT) this morning.
The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing at 9:00 AM EST this morning regarding a years-long probe into climate change messaging from big oil companies. Following a 3-year investigation, Senate and House Democrats released their final report yesterday alleging major oil companies have internally recognized the impacts of fossil fuels on the climate since as far back as the 1960s, while privately lobbying against climate legislation and publicly presenting a narrative that undermines a connection between the two. Whether this will have a tangible effect on policy or is just the latest announcement in an election-yeardeluge is yet to be seen.
Speaking of deluge, another drone attack was launched against Russian infrastructure earlier this morning, causing an explosion and subsequent fire at Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery. While likely a response to the five killed from Russian missile strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, Kyiv has yet to officially claim responsibility for the attack that successfully struck state infrastructure just 130 miles from Moscow.
The crude oil bears are on a tear this past week, blowing past WTI’s 5 and 10 day moving averages on Monday and opening below it’s 50-day MA this morning. The $80 level is likely a key resistance level, below which the path is open for the American oil benchmark to drop to the $75 level in short order.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Energy futures are drifting quietly higher this morning as a new round of hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas seem to show relative promise. It seems the market is focusing on the prospect of cooler heads prevailing, rather than the pervasive rocket/drone exchanges, the latest of which took place over Israel’s northern border.
A warmer-than-expected winter depressed diesel demand and, likewise, distillate refinery margins, which has dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2022. The ULSD forward curve has shifted into contango (carry) over the past month as traders seek to store their diesel inventories and hope for a pickup in demand, domestic or otherwise.
The DOE announced it had continued rebuilding it’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve this month, noting the addition of 2.3 million barrels of crude so far in April. Depending on what the private sector reported for last week, Wednesday’s DOE report may put current national crude oil inventories (include those of the SPR) above the year’s previous levels, something we haven’t seen since April of 2022, two months after Ukraine war began.
The latest in the Dangote Refinery Saga: Credit stall-out, rising oil prices, and currency exchange.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.