Rising Inventory And Falling Stocks
Rising inventory and falling stocks continue to push energy futures lower this week, with WTI trading below $60 for the first time since March overnight, and on pace for its biggest weekly sell-off of the year. A flurry of concerns over European elections and the US/China trade war seem to be sparking a wave of “risk-off” selling that’s hitting numerous asset classes, and some bearish data from the DOE’s weekly report is certainly not helping energy commodities resist the pull lower.
This latest round of selling has tipped short term technical indicators into bearish territory, but unless we see a break and hold below the May lows, it’s too early to say that a trend is forming, and this could just be the latest swing in a choppy market. Both WTI and ULSD broke their May lows overnight, so there is certainly a chance we could get that breakdown yet this week, although it seems less likely since futures often tend to drift higher ahead of a holiday weekend.
US crude oil stocks reached their highest levels since July 2017 last week, even though exports of US crude are holding just under 3 million barrels/day. Refinery throughput rates remain below-average, while output remains just shy of record levels at 12.2 million barrels/day.
Total US petroleum demand is a bit troubling as well for US producers as the past 2 weeks have seen estimates below their seasonal 5 year average, as both gasoline and diesel consumption seems to be lagging in May. If we see a spike in those figures over the coming weeks, the soft reports will be written off to the challenges of estimating demand week by week, but if not, these reports could be the early warning of slowing activity in the US.
The EIA published a new note this morning detailing the issues that caused retail gasoline prices in California to spike north of $4, for the first time in almost 5 years. The good news for consumers on the West Coast is we’ve already seen basis values drop 30-40 cents as refineries come back online and imports are received. With last week’s imports r reaching an 8 year high, it seems like we might see prices continue to decline, unless of course there’s another rash of refinery trouble.
From that report:
The West Coast is isolated by both geography and a lack of petroleum infrastructure connections to the rest of the United States. In addition, California requires a different gasoline specification than the rest of the country, further narrowing resupply options. These restrictions mean that after drawing down in-region inventories, the next available resupply is through imports from refineries in Asia or Europe.
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Energy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher This Morning But Remain Well Off The Highs Set Early Thursday
Energy markets are ticking modestly higher this morning but remain well off the highs set early Thursday following the reports that Russia was temporarily banning most refined product exports.
The law of government intervention and unintended consequences: Russian officials claim the export ban is an effort to promote market stability, and right on cue, its gasoline prices plummeted a not-so-stable 10% following the news.
There’s a saying that bull markets don’t end due to bad news, they end when the market stops rallying on good news. It’s possible that if ULSD futures continue lower after failing to sustain yesterday’s rally, or this morning’s, we could be seeing the end of the most recent bull run. That said, it’s still much too soon to call the top here, particularly with a steepening forward curve leaving prices susceptible to a squeeze, and the winter-demand months still ahead of us. Short term we need to see ULSD hold above $3.30 next week to avoid breaking its weekly trend line.
The sell-off in RIN values picked up steam Thursday, with 2023 D4 and D6 values dropping to the $1.02 range before finally finding a bid later in the session and ending the day around $1.07.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to be named today, before making landfall on the North Carolina coast tomorrow. This isn’t a major storm, and there aren’t any refineries in its path, so it’s unlikely to do much to disrupt supply, but it will dump heavy rain several of the major East Coast markets so it will likely hamper demand through the weekend. The other storm system being tracked by the NHC is now given 90% odds of being named next week, but its predicted path has shifted north as it moves across the Atlantic, which suggests it is more likely to stay out to sea like Nigel did than threaten either the Gulf or East Coasts.
Exxon reported an upset at its Baytown refinery that’s been ongoing for the past 24 hours. It’s still unclear which units are impacted by this event, and whether or not it will have meaningful impacts on output. Total’s Pt Arthur facility also reported an upset yesterday, but that event lasted less than 90 minutes. Like most upsets in the region recently, traders seem to be shrugging off the news with gulf coast basis values not moving much.
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The Yo-Yo Action In Diesel Continues With Each Day Alternating Between Big Gains And Big Losses So Far This Week
The yo-yo action in diesel continues with each day alternating between big gains and big losses so far this week. Today’s 11-cent rally is being blamed on reports that Russia is cutting exports of refined products effective immediately. It’s been a while since Russian sabre rattling has driven a noticeable price move in energy futures, after being a common occurrence at the start of the war. Just like tweets from our prior President however, these types of announcements seem to have a diminishing shelf-life, particularly given how the industry has adapted to the change in Russian export flows, so don’t be surprised if the early rally loses steam later today.
The announcement also helped gasoline prices rally 5-cents off of their overnight lows, and cling to modest gains just above a penny in the early going. Before the announcement, RBOB futures were poised for a 5th straight day of losses.
IF the export ban lasts, that would be good news for US refiners that have seen their buyers in south American countries – most notably Brazil – reduce their purchases in favor of discounted barrels from Russia this year.
US refinery runs dropped below year-ago levels for the first time in 6 weeks, with PADDS 1, 2 and 3 all seeing large declines at the start of a busy fall maintenance schedule. Oil inventories continued to decline, despite the drop-in run rates and a big increase in the adjustment factor as oil exports surged back north of 5 million barrels/day. Keep in mind that as recently as 2011 the US only produced 5 million barrels of oil every day, and exports were mostly banned until 2016, so to be sending this many barrels overseas is truly a game changer for the global market.
Chicken or the egg? Cushing OK oil stocks dropped below year-ago levels for the first time since January last week, which may be caused by the return of backwardation incenting shippers to lower inventory levels, the shift to new WTI Midland and Houston contracts as the export market expands. Of course, the low inventory levels are also blamed for causing the backwardation in crude oil prices, and the shift to an export market may keep inventories at the NYMEX hub lower for longer as fewer shippers want to go inland with their barrels.
Refined product inventories remain near the bottom end of their seasonal ranges, with a healthy recovery in demand after last week’s holiday hangover helping keep stocks in check. The biggest mover was a large jump in PADD 5 distillates, which was foreshadowed by the 30 cent drop in basis values the day prior. The big story for gasoline on the week was a surge in exports to the highest level of the year, which is helping keep inventories relatively tight despite the driving season having ended 2 weeks ago.
As expected, the FED held rates yesterday, but the open market committee also included a note that they expected to raise rates one more time this year, which sparked a selloff in equity markets that trickled over into energy prices Wednesday afternoon. The correlation between energy and equities has been non-existent of late, and already this morning we’re seeing products up despite equities pointing lower, so it doesn’t look like the FOMC announcement will have a lasting impact on fuel prices this time around.