The First 4.5 Trading Days Of March Have Smashed Records For Daily Price Swings And Increases
Good news: gasoline prices are down 28 cents and diesel prices are down 33 cents from where they were trading last night.
Bad news: both contracts reached record highs last night in the first few minutes of trading, and are still showing large gains from Friday despite the pullback.
The first 4.5 trading days of March have smashed records for daily price swings and increases as the world comes to grips with the idea that there is no short term solution to replace Russian petroleum supplies, making the risk of both volatility and government intervention higher than ever. For both ULSD and RBOB, these would be the largest monthly gains on record if prices hold, and we’re not even through a full week yet.
For ULSD, we’ve already seen the biggest monthly trading range ($1.30/gallon) in just 4.5 days of trading, while the RBOB range of $.95 ranks third all-time behind the March 2020 and December 2008 market meltdowns that both surpassed $1/gallon.
An official Russian oil embargo (vs the current unofficial and voluntary embargo) was floated over the weekend, while renewed negotiations to reduce sanctions and increase oil output with both Iran and Venezuela seem to be going nowhere, and both seem to be factors in the latest price spike.
Already, even though energy products aren’t officially sanctioned (yet), we’re seeing dramatic signs of the impact a lack of international buyers is having on its refining operations, as plants are forced to cut run rates and halt crude intake due to a lack of storage for their production. Refinery maintenance and upgrades are also expected to be hampered without access to foreign technology.
Regional supplies in the US have been disrupted over the past two weeks by a pair of Kinder Morgan pipeline issues, and a handful of (so far minor) refinery disruptions. The coastal markets remain tight in general, while inland markets remain well supplied, and lacking transportation to help alleviate their glut, and/or take advantage of the record spreads from the middle of the country to the edges.
RIN values pulled back on Friday, even as Corn, Soybean (and refined product) prices continued to spike. A “news” article suggesting the White House was considering a biofuel waiver to help curb food inflation seems to have been the driver of that selling. Other non-food-based environmental credits like the European EUA’s, and California’s LCFS and CCA credits are all seeing heavy selling as expectations rise for both demand destruction, and a change of heart from governments that just a few weeks ago still thought having clean energy was more important than having energy.
Short covering was the theme of the week for money managers, that saw large reductions in the short positions held in energy futures. WTI and Brent saw some modest new length enter the market, but the lack of “piling on” at least in the first two days of the week when the CFTC data is collected, suggested these huge swings may be too hot to handle, even for the big speculators.
Baker Hughes reported a decline of 3 oil rigs working in the US last week, snapping a 5 week streak of increases. Natural gas rigs increased by 3, the 9th straight week of gains for natural gas focused drilling.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Energy Markets Are Pointing Modestly Higher To Start Friday’s Session
Energy markets are pointing modestly higher to start Friday’s session, in a meager attempt at a recovery rally at the end of what would be the worst week in over two months if prices settle near current values. The liquidation of speculative bets placed on higher energy prices ahead of the direct conflict between Israel and Iran continues to appear to be the driver of the weakness, and we’ll have to wait and see if this modest bounce is a sign that the liquidation is over, or just a pause before it picks up again. Most contracts remain in a precarious technical position with the potential for a slide towards $70 for WTI and $2.20 for both refined products if the buyers don’t get serious soon.
Stocks are pointing sharply higher after a slowdown in job growth reported in the April Non-Farm payroll report. The BLS reported an increase of 175,000 jobs for the month, down sharply from the 315,000 jobs added in March, and the February & March estimates were revised down a combined 22,000. Both the “official” (U-3) and “real” (U-6) unemployment rates ticked up by .1% to 3.9% and 7.4% respectively. The immediate positive reaction to negative news suggest that the bad news is good news low-interest-rate junkies believe this may help the FED’s dilemma of the US economy being too strong to cut rates. The big jump in equities has not seemed to spill over into energy contracts yet, as crude and refined product contracts changed very little following the report.
San Francisco diesel basis spiked 15 cents Thursday to reach the highest level of any market in the country so far this year at 35 cents over prompt futures. While there aren’t yet any refinery upsets reported to blame the spike on, PBF is undergoing planned maintenance at its Martinez facility, and of course P66 just finished converting its Rodeo plant to RD after Marathon converted its Martinez facility in the past couple of years, meaning there are at most only 2 out of the previous 5 refineries in the region operating near capacity these days. The question now is how quickly barrels can shift north from Southern California which continues to show signs of a supply glut with weak basis values and spot to rack spreads.
PBF continued the trend of Q1 refinery earnings that were sharply lower, but still healthy by longer-term historical standards. The company noted that its Saint Bernard (the parish, not the dog) Renewables facility co-processing at its Chalmette refinery had received provisional approval from CARB to lower its CI scores and help improve the amount of LCFS subsidies it can receive. That facility is operating at 18mb/day which is roughly 86% of its capacity.
Cenovus highlighted the restart of its Toledo and Superior refineries in improved refinery run rates in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 and noted that it had ramped up production at units that were slowed down for economic reasons in December and January (you may remember this as the time when midcontinent basis values were trading 50 cents/gallon below futures). The company did note that the January deep freeze slowed operations at Superior, but did not mention any change in operating rates despite numerous upsets at its 50% owned Borger refinery.
Dress rehearsal for a busy hurricane season? So far there are no reports of refinery issues caused by the flooding in the Houston area this week. At this point, most of the flooding appears to be far to the north of the refining hubs on the Gulf Coast but with more storms in the forecast and 88 counties already declaring disaster status, this will be something to watch for the next few days.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Crude Oil Inventories Climbed Above Year-Ago Levels For The First Time In 2024
Sell by May then go away.
The old trading adage looked good for energy markets in 2024 as the new month started off with the biggest daily sell-off of the year so far. WTI and ULSD contracts are now in “rally or else” mode on the charts with sharply lower prices a strong possibility now that technical support layers have broken down. RBOB doesn’t look quite as bearish on the charts, but seasonal factors will now act as a headwind as we’re well into the spring peaking window for gasoline prices, and we’ve already seen a 27 cent drop from the highs. If RBOB can hold above $2.50 there’s a chance to avoid a larger selloff, but if not, a run towards $2.20 for both gasoline and diesel looks likely in the months ahead.
The selling picked up steam following the DOE’s weekly report Wednesday, even though the inventory changes were fairly small. Crude oil inventories continue their steady build and climbed above year-ago levels for the first time in 2024. Demand for refined products remains sluggish, even after accounting for the RD consumption that’s still not in the weekly reports, and most PADDs are following a typical seasonal inventory trend. The Gulf Coast saw a healthy build in diesel inventories last week as the export market slowed for a 3rd straight week. Refinery runs dipped modestly last week following a handful of upsets across the country, but overall rates remain near normal levels for this time of year.
The Transmountain pipeline expansion began operations yesterday, completing a 12-year saga that has the potential to materially change refining economics for plants in the US that relied heavily on discounted Canadian crude to turn profits over the past decade.
The P66 Borger refinery reported another operational upset Monday that lasted a full 24 hours impacting a sulfur recovery unit. Last week the company highlighted how the plant’s fire department helped the surrounding area when the largest wildfire in state history came within feet of the facility.
The EPA approved a new model to determine life cycle carbon intensity scores this week, which cracks open the door for things like ethanol to SAF, which were previously deemed to not reduce emissions enough to qualify for government subsidies. The new model would require improved farming techniques like no-till, cover crop planting and using higher efficiency nitrogen fertilizer to limit the damage done by farms that no longer rotate crops due to the ethanol mandates. Whether or not the theoretical ability to produce SAF comes to fruition in the coming years thanks to the increased tax credit potential will be a key pivot point for some markets that find themselves with too much RD today, but could see those supplies transition to aviation demand.
The FED continues to throw cold water on anyone hoping for a near term cut in interest rates. The FOMC held rates steady as expected Wednesday, but also highlighted the struggles with stubbornly high inflation. The CME’s Fedwatch tool gave 58% odds of at least one rate cut by September before the announcement, and those odds have slipped modestly to 54% this morning.